The story of the illness of Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev last week became perhaps the most discussed topic on the Internet. The forecast for the imminent resignation of the head of the Cabinet of Ministers was born at lightning speed, as, in fact, were the protests with the corresponding demand. But the popular activity did not end there: a link to the computer game “Petition for the resignation of Medvedev - 2017” began to spread through various forums. Who is eager for the Prime Minister to leave and who is predicted to take his place - in the FederalPress material.
“Medvedev owes his super popularity to Navalny, Putin and the flu”
Russians learned about the illness of Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev from President Vladimir Putin on March 14, during a meeting of the head of state with ministers. Putin’s words that “Dmitry Anatolyevich was not saved” spread on the Internet with lightning speed. On that day, Medvedev not only did not attend the meeting of the president with the cabinet of ministers, but also for the first time this year missed an off-site meeting of the United Russia faction, at which topical issues of the agro-industrial complex were discussed.
Dmitry Medvedev's illness, however, was short-lived - already on March 15, he appeared at the White House and even met with Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan.
For Internet users, the Prime Minister's return the day after the announcement of his illness only became another reason for discussion - the head of the Cabinet of Ministers managed to cure the flu suspiciously quickly. A photograph of coffeebarberry on Instagram, taken in Krasnaya Polyana allegedly on March 10, that is, before Medvedev’s illness, added fuel to the fire. Few people believed this date. Reasonable questions that immediately arose among users: why did this photo not appear on the social network on the same day, but waited in the wings for almost a week, and how did the prime minister manage to overcome the flu in 3-4 days?
Thus, Dmitry Medvedev’s illness and the fact that it was publicly announced not even by the prime minister’s press secretary, but personally by the president of the country, only intensified the talk about his impending resignation, which began after oppositionist Alexei Navalny released a film about Medvedev’s property. Someone even joked: Navalny, Putin and the flu made Medvedev super popular.
This March will probably be remembered by the Russian Prime Minister for a new wave of rumors and protests for his resignation. Suffice it to recall the events of March 6 in St. Petersburg, where about 70 people took part in the people’s gathering organized by the youth democratic movement “Spring”. The action was just a response to the investigation of Navalny’s foundation.
Last weekend, rallies for the resignation of the government led by Dmitry Medvedev took place in Russian cities. In Birobidzhan, the communists accused Medvedev of causing “social ulcers”, the collapse of housing and communal services and agriculture, industry and the transport system. In Ulyanovsk, communists also came out to a rally and demanded, in addition, the resignation of the president, but the slogans were not much different from the slogans of their party colleagues from the Jewish Autonomous Region.
These days, a link to the computer game “Petition for Medvedev’s resignation 2017” began to spread on various forums these days. However, it did not arouse mass interest.
So should we wait for resignation?
His opponents are demanding the resignation of Dmitry Medvedev almost exactly as long as he has been head of the Cabinet. These demands result in protest rallies and various kinds of petitions. Last September, FederalPress, as part of the special project “Wind of Change,” spoke about the next wave of popular discontent with the Prime Minister. Then, literally a few days before the State Duma elections, experts were skeptical about the likelihood of Medvedev’s resignation.
And today, despite the revealing publications of Alexei Navalny, experts basically share the same opinion - nothing threatens Medvedev. “At the end of 2016 – beginning of 2017, Dmitry Medvedev’s position strengthened,” comments a leading analyst at the Agency for Political and Economic Communications Mikhail Neizhmakov. – Yes, and information attacks are not carried out against a person who is about to leave his position. Therefore, the current prime minister has a good chance of working in his current position at least until the eve of the presidential elections.”
Medvedev’s immediate future, according to Neizhmakov, depends on the strategic tasks that Vladimir Putin will define for himself for his new presidential term.
In addition, “the prime minister in the Russian political system has not been the main “lightning rod” for a long time (as is often the case in presidential republics, say, in France),” the expert noted. Therefore, “unpopular measures in public opinion are associated with specific ministers, and not with the head of government.”
Director of the Institute of Political Sociology Vyacheslav Smirnov In general, he believes that “Medvedev will remain for a long time.” “It is advisable or not advisable to change the prime minister before the presidential elections. And after the presidential elections, why change? The president has already received his 65-75 percent, and who the prime minister will be is no longer so important,” the political scientist explains his position.
According to the director of the Center for Regional Policy Development Ilya Grashchenkov, “Medvedev can remain in office until his departure becomes a necessary step to preserve Putin’s own power.” “He is a loyal ally of the president, he has proven his loyalty,” explains the expert. – He even proved his effectiveness, because under his leadership the United Russia party won the State Duma elections in 2016. He created his own powerful clan, which includes up to 30% of Russian governors. It influences the largest financial and industrial groups - such as Gazprom.
Taking all this into account, political scientist Roman Kolesnikov believes that “the story of Dmitry Anatolyevich’s absence from two important meetings should not obscure the eyes with a veil of expectation of resignation.”
Sobyanin is first on the list
At the same time, experts do not undertake to completely deny the possibility of changing the prime minister. Today, as a rule, there are four names circulating in the media: among possible replacements for Dmitry Medvedev, they name the former head of the Ministry of Finance Alexei Kudrin, the mayor of Moscow Sergei Sobyanin, the Deputy Prime Minister - Plenipotentiary Envoy of the President of the Russian Federation in the Far Eastern Federal District Yuri Trutnev, the head of the Ministry of Defense Sergei Shoigu.
Many experts, in particular Mikhail Neizhmakov, are of the opinion that “the appointment of Alexei Kudrin, an open supporter of unpopular economic reforms, to the post of prime minister is unlikely.” This is unlikely to happen even after the presidential elections.
Ilya Grashchenkov believes that “Alexei Kudrin, with all his desire to take this post, has only been losing political weight in recent years.” At the same time, the political scientist does not rule out that given a rather difficult situation in the country, “Medvedev may be allowed to leave “on the rise,” while Kudrin will have a very difficult task, the failure of which may be blamed on him.” “In essence, Kudrin is not much different from Medvedev ideologically - this will only be a hardware change of management, plus a tightening of the financial sector in terms of taxes and fees. But this is not [presidential adviser Sergei] Glazyev, and not an alternative concept of state development, not the Juche idea,” Grashchenkov noted.
The option of raising the current head of the Ministry of Defense Sergei Shoigu to the level of prime minister, according to political scientist Ilya Grashchenkov, is not relevant. “Most likely, it could be considered on the condition that Russia finds itself in a state of isolation and a cold war with the West, when the government should be headed by a strong and authoritative leader. But in this case, Shoigu will become a direct competitor to Putin himself, I think both understand this,” Grashchenkov noted.
However, the most likely candidate for the prime minister's post is Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin. Several political scientists told FederalPress. Roman Kolesnikov explains his position by the fact that Sobyanin is the most “experienced and successful business executive. “In addition, Sobyanin has significant hardware weight for the prime minister’s appointment. In the latest ranking of the influence of governors, he confidently ranks first. He worked as both the head of the Administration and the head of the government apparatus,” the expert recalled.
By the way, the scenario of Sobyanin’s appointment is quite possible: the capital’s mayor’s term of office is about to expire in 2018. And after the presidential elections, Vladimir Putin may well offer him not to run for mayor, but to head the country’s government. At the same time, according to political scientist Ilya Grashchenkov, Sobyanin’s closeness to Medvedev “speaks of possible continuity of course.”
The real or alleged resignation of Dmitry Medvedev in 2018 has repeatedly been the focus of media attention; the latest news on this topic today is related to the Russian Prime Minister’s prolonged absence from public events. Did the head of government really leave his post?
Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev and President Vladimir Putin
Disappearance of the Prime Minister
The Prime Minister has not appeared in public or on television since August 14. On this day, he met with Andrei Travnikov, the acting governor of the Novosibirsk region. And this is the last public event to date in which the prime minister took personal part.
Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev His disappearance for such a long period gave rise to speculation about the resignation of the second person in the state. The most logical and harmless version that Dmitry Anatolyevich is on vacation was not confirmed.
There is evidence that his work schedule for the period from August 14 to 24 was quite busy, and it included important events and meetings that had to be cancelled.
Thus, the last meeting of the Security Council, held by the President on August 22, took place without the participation of the prime minister. Permanent members of this body, ministers and heads of structures directly related to state security issues met in Sochi. The Prime Minister, contrary to usual, was not among them; he did not take part in the discussion of the current socio-economic situation, the state of Russian-American relations and the situation in Syria.
Dmitry Medvedev This is interesting. One of Medvedev’s last “public outings” was an official visit to Kamchatka, during which he chaired a meeting of the regional commission and visited a beach with black volcanic sand.
The jar of sand that the Prime Minister allegedly walked on was put up for an online auction by one of the residents of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky for 100 thousand rubles.
Short May retirement
This is not the first time the topic of resignation of the current prime minister and his government has been raised. The message that Putin had dismissed Medvedev, which appeared on one of the Internet news portals on April 1, 2018, was questionable due to the date of publication. However, many readers did not take it as a joke at all, but responded with comments in the style of “it’s about time!”
https://www.site/2017-03-17/mozhet_li_dmitriy_medvedev_uyti_v_otstavku
Political flu
Can Dmitry Medvedev resign?
Komsomolskaya Pravda/Global Look Press
In recent weeks, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev has found himself at the center of a major scandal caused by the publication of an investigation into politician Alexei Navalny. Then, according to Vladimir Putin, he caught the flu and because of this he missed a government meeting. Today Medvedev did not come to the meeting of the Security Council of the Russian Federation. This gave reason to say that Medvedev’s problems are really serious. Experts with whom the site spoke note that the prime minister and his entourage chose ineffective defense tactics. However, Medvedev is likely to retain his post until the 2018 elections.
"Protection for three plus"
It is impossible to react “head-on” to attacks like those carried out by Navalny, political scientist Abbas Gallyamov told the site. “Any reaction from Medvedev would only become an additional source of information on a topic that is unfavorable to him and would create a feeling of equality of the debating parties,” he believes. — Any conflict equalizes the parties. For Navalny this would be a victory, and for Medvedev a defeat. However, one cannot simply remain silent either. You need to impose your agenda. Directly push it with all your weight. That did not happen. Medvedev just got sick. To call this an adequate reaction can only be a mockery,” the expert believes. In his opinion, Medvedev’s entourage needed to organize “a wave of comments from experts who would say that now the prime minister’s position will be strengthened, because the attack turned out to be meaningless, and in general Putin does not like it when his people are touched.” However, this was not done.
Former deputy presidential envoy to the Urals Federal District, political scientist Andrei Kolyadin believes that Medvedev had no defense tactics at all. “Unfortunately, our government and presidential team for many years operated in a situation where political opponents were tied up and bolted to a chair,” he says. “And when they start striking, it’s amazing.” An information attack from Navalny is not something surprising that is impossible to fight. For example, a video of live babies being eaten at a government meeting was not published. At the same time, people are trying to pretend that nothing happened, although more than 13 million people watched the video. And it looks strange,” says the former official. He says that in Russia there are specialists in information warfare who could be involved in the situation instead of banning Navalny on Instagram or trying to interrupt the agenda with a myrrh-streaming bust of Nicholas II.
“I respect the government team, however, unfortunately, it is not adapted to the pre-election period, and such a period is always an information war,” the expert adds.
Kremlin Pool / Global Look Press
The head of the International Institute of Political Expertise, Evgeny Minchenko, believes that Medvedev’s defense was worked out with a “C plus”.
“Answers with an emphasis on Navalny’s criminal record were not very successful, given that there is an archetype of a “convicted person who suffered for the truth.” This strengthens it, not weakens it. But translating the question into the plane of which of the elite groups benefits from an attack on Medvedev has justified itself. There was no fatal damage,” says Minchenko.
Political scientist Vitaly Ivanov says that the effectiveness of the tactics chosen by the Prime Minister and his entourage after the release of Navalny’s materials is questionable, but the basic stability of the government does not depend on the quality of the information policy.
“Weakened, but won’t go away”
Experts say that the government's position has weakened after the events of the last week and a half. In a democratic country, serious questions would arise for the cabinet of ministers, but the Russian prime minister will most likely remain in office until the end of Vladimir Putin’s current presidential term.
“Of course, Medvedev’s position has weakened. Putin, of course, will not dismiss him now, but the prime minister’s influence on the country’s affairs will decrease. People don’t really listen to him anyway, but now the feeling of a “lame duck” has strengthened even more,” says Abbas Gallyamov.
In any society where democratic principles prevail, talk about the resignation of the government after the latest events would become possible, but in the current conditions this issue is being resolved in one office, argues Andrei Kolyadin.
“If Vladimir Putin gives his word, he keeps it - this is an important trait of his character. There are promises that the president makes for a certain period of time, and he fulfills them. The government’s term may expire with the election cycle,” notes Kolyadin.
By the way, there is a popular rumor in the establishment that at the end of 2011, Vladimir Putin gave Dmitry Medvedev his word: in exchange for Dmitry Anatolyevich refusing a second presidential term, he was guaranteed the position of prime minister until 2018.
Zamir Usmanov/Global Look Press
Political strategist Vitaly Ivanov also believes that there is not a single reason to expect that the government will not complete its work before the end of Putin’s third term. Navalny’s current attack on Medvedev is likely to strengthen him, since Putin does not like to make decisions under pressure, recalls Evgeny Minchenko in turn. Recently, Medvedev has repositioned himself towards “Deputy Prime Minister for Social Issues and the Agrarian Complex”, showing his own niche, the expert says.
Minchenko recalls that in the 2000s, before every election, except for the 2012 elections with an announced reshuffle, the government resigned to regroup the elites, and that on the eve of the 2017 elections, such a new regrouping would also look logical, for example, the new prime minister could even be a fairly young man under the age of 40, with experience at the federal level with the most unexpected surname.
MGIMO professor, head of the department of public relations Valery Solovey notes that now the government is under attack from a variety of elite groups, but his early resignation is impossible, since Putin at a recent meeting with the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs made it clear that the new government will be formed by a new president.
According to Solovy, there are two broad coalitions that are monitoring the weakening of Medvedev’s positions; at the center of one of them, according to him, is the head of the presidential administration Anton Vaino, at the center of the other is the first deputy head of the Presidential Administration Sergei Kiriyenko. The coalition around Medvedvev himself, which includes Deputy Prime Ministers Arkady Dvorkovich and Igor Shuvalov, is now in a defensive position, Solovey says.
The absence of the Prime Minister at a meeting with permanent members of the Security Council is not a reason to bury him, the head of the Political Expert Group, Konstantin Kalachev, optimistically believes. “As for Navalny’s investigation, we can at least remember that some time ago Navalny’s target was the Prosecutor General. But Chaika not only retained his position, but even strengthened it. I am sure that there is no need to worry about Medvedev’s fate. He will still work,” says the expert.
Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev is so unpopular among the people that rumors about his resignation are constantly circulating on social networks and the “yellow” media. But will Medvedev really resign or be sent there in the near future?
Medvedev's resignation is the dream of many after “no money”
During his time in power, Medvedev was, at best, laughed at, recalling his communication with Schwarzenegger, his love for iPhones and dancing. However, the attitude towards him worsened with each new government initiative, since Medvedev, as head of government, bears personal responsibility for each of them.
Then came the famous “there is no money, but you hold on” and Navalny’s film, which caused a stir. Indeed, it was as if Medvedev was deliberately turned into an object of ridicule, a sponge for absorbing the hatred of the population, the evil twin of the “good” Putin.
In recent days, there have been rumors that Medvedev fled the country along with the head of the Central Bank Nabiullina. However, he soon returned.
The peak of speculation regarding Medvedev's possible resignation occurred during the elections and immediately after, when the candidacy of the new prime minister had not yet been announced. The old government resigned its powers to the newly elected Putin. Medvedev himself signed a corresponding order on the resignation of him, his deputies and federal ministers.However, soon the newly elected president convened the government with the same composition, making only some cosmetic changes. Medvedev himself remained at the head of the government. Thus, the president showed favor to his entire former circle.
Medvedev's resignation depends on Putin's rating
But this does not mean that Prime Minister Medvedev’s position is secure. Perhaps, like a festive duck, he is being saved in order to be “slaughtered” at the right moment. We mean that Putin’s rating has been steadily falling since the weakening of the “Crimean euphoria” and will continue to fall. In the face of mass dissatisfaction with the pension reform, Putin was forced to take it under his personal protection, that is, he accepted responsibility for raising the retirement age. There is no doubt that the government has prepared many more reforms to “cut social services” and burden the lower classes with various extortions.
If the degree of social boiling reaches a dangerous level, for example, leading to mass unauthorized rallies in Moscow and the Province or to street riots, then the authorities can “sacrifice” Medvedev by demonstratively dismissing him and retroactively appointing him as a director of some state corporation, like this They did it once with Kiriyenko.
This will make it possible, as it were, to nullify the government’s sins, attributing them all to the demoted prime minister, and again increase the rating of the “tough and principled” Putin. Until new unpopular reforms. But if such a critical moment does not come, then the government will not have to sacrifice its prime minister.
The number of political assets with a minus sign is growing at an unplanned pace.
Let's start, however, with the first one. Has Medvedev really become a burden for the regime?
There is no doubt about it. The Levada Center poll that worried him (45% of respondents were in favor of resignation, 33% were against) in all major parameters, including the breakdown of answers to other questions, is very close to the information from the weekly reports of the near-Kremlin FOM. All “Medvedev’s” indicators are worsening there with each new measurement, and the share of those who believe that the prime minister is “working poorly in his post” since mid-April has exceeded the number of those who believe that he is “good.”
Medvedev has never been perceived by our public as an independent figure. He shone with reflected light, and fluctuations in his popularity indices always followed fluctuations in those of Putin. Perhaps this is still the case. Putin's indices are also declining. But they still remain in the positive zone, while Medvedev’s have moved into the negative.
The prime minister’s reaction to the video “He’s not your Dimon” confirmed his lack of any political qualifications or simply the ability to take a punch. Until recently, the universal helplessness of the head of government created an atmosphere of comfort for Putin, but today it is desirable that people in his circle show other qualities to the people. There is not the slightest hope that Medvedev will find them. It has become an obvious political burden, which, with a strong desire, can, of course, be carried further, but it would be more logical to throw it off one’s shoulders.
However, the logic of the highest decisions cannot be so straightforward.
Who will replace Medvedev? Another figurehead? But premieres of the caliber of Mikhail Fradkov looked like something normal in completely different times. The reaction from below, and not only from below, to someone strange and weak is now completely unpredictable, and instead of releasing it, it can also increase tension.
And the elevation to prime minister of a person perceived as a strong figure is too similar to the appointment of an heir. So, at least, it will be understood and even, perhaps, interpreted as Putin’s most important strategic decision in the last ten years. Also risky and does not increase comfort.
You can, of course, choose a middle ground and appoint as first minister some technocrat programmed for so-called unpopular measures, in order to then please the people with his shameful expulsion. But events can easily spin out of control. The system is rusty and can crumble from any shock.
The fate of the so-called Medvedev government is no less important. “So-called” because this is not one structure, but several departmental alliances, and they are not led by Medvedev at all, but partly by Putin, and partly they act autonomously - both according to their own understanding and in the interests of competing lobbying teams.
But while the prime minister is merely a symbol of government, his political disappearance would call into question all these intertwined ambitions, established governance practices and hard-won balances.
For example, does Putin want the “economic bloc” to fall (the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Economic Development and related departments, which, albeit with difficulty, work in conjunction with the Central Bank, which is nominally not part of the government)? After all, he is ideologically close to them, albeit not on all points. It is not for nothing that experts in economic history recognize Putin as a spontaneous adherent of mercantilism. There was such a doctrine in past centuries, which prescribed the accumulation of monetary reserves in the treasury, preventing the import of goods, relying on state business and not allowing large excess of expenses over income.
The “economic bloc”’s ideas about what it would be desirable to do are somewhat more sophisticated, but in reality it is pursuing exactly this course. Which the leader likes, but is not particularly popular in court circles, where many magnates feel deprived, and at the same time irritates the people more and more, since the burden of the austerity regime has shifted to him.
They say that United Russia will praise Putin at the May Day events, expressively keeping silent about both Medvedev and the government, and the state-owned trade unions working with it will begin to defame the “economic bloc.” The suspended state of the former prime minister is already being exploited with might and main by fighters for tasty positions in the executive branch, without any signal from above.
Promoting this insignificant person in ancient times, Vladimir Putin, of course, did not imagine that the system would spontaneously turn him into its most important unit, the replacement of which promised so many problems, and, moreover, at the most inopportune time.
Sergey Shelin
