Methods for forecasting and calculating the needs of personnel. Forecasting staffing needs

Introduction

In the conditions of a difficult financial and economic situation in the country, the issues of practical application of modern methods of personnel management, which make it possible to increase the socio-economic efficiency of any organization, are of particular importance. One of the components of this process is personnel planning, an important part of which, in turn, becomes planning and forecasting the need for personnel. Effective workforce planning has a positive impact on the performance of the organization by optimizing the use of personnel, identifying and productively using the professional potential of employees, creating the basis for systematic recruitment and selection of personnel, reducing overall labor costs through a thoughtful, consistent and active labor market policy. Therefore, a comprehensive study of the theoretical and practical foundations of personnel planning and forecasting the need for personnel is an important basis for our future activities. This is the relevance of the chosen topic. The purpose of this work is a comprehensive consideration of the main problems of planning and forecasting the need for personnel for the subsequent development of this area of ​​activity.

To achieve this goal, the following tasks are solved:

* definition of the essence, functions and principles of personnel planning;

* analysis of the main methods of personnel planning;

* study of the theoretical foundations of planning the need for personnel;

* consideration of options for applying personnel planning on the example of an organization. The main chapters of our work are devoted to the solution of these problems. The first chapter is theoretical, the second is analytical, and the third is practical.

economic personnel personnel

Theoretical needs of planning and forecasting the need for personnel

The concept, functions and principles of personnel planning

Personnel planning (human resources), and in another way - personnel planning, is the most important (although in most cases - secondary, derivative) element of the overall planning system of the organization. With the help of personnel planning is determined:

* how many workers, what qualifications, when and where will be needed;

* What are the requirements for certain categories of personnel (for this, professional qualification models of positions are used);

* how to attract the right and reduce unnecessary staff;

* how to use personnel in accordance with their potential;

* how to ensure the development of this potential, improve skills;

* how to organize fair wages, staff motivation and solve its social problems;

* what costs will be required by the activities.

Typically, personnel planning is carried out in the following stages:

* preparatory (vocational guidance, professional selection, vocational training);

* distribution (recruitment, selection and placement of personnel);

* adaptive.

Personnel planning, like planning, in general, is based on a number of principles, i.e., the rules for its implementation:

1. Participation of the maximum number of employees of the organization in the work on the plan already at the earliest stages of its preparation (basic principle). If we are talking about social events, this principle is unconditional, in other cases its application is desirable.

2. Continuity is due to the need for constant work with personnel, accompanying their movement, development, etc. Therefore, personnel planning is considered not as a single act, but as a regularly repeating process.

3. Continuity requires that all current plans be developed with the understanding that they will serve as the basis for drawing up future ones and, at the same time, based on the results of the previous ones.

4. Flexibility implies the ability to change personnel decisions in accordance with changing circumstances. To do this, the so-called "pillows" are laid in the plans, which, if necessary, within certain limits, provide freedom of maneuver.

5. Coordination of plans through their coordination and integration, caused by the unity and interconnectedness of individual parts of the organization. Coordination is carried out horizontally, i.e. between units of the same level, and integration - vertically (between higher and lower). They are necessary because often the same work can be performed by different departments, in connection with which there are positions that duplicate each other.

6. Compliance with the requirements of labor legislation. For example, the need for workers cannot be accurately determined without taking into account the fact that certain categories of them have the right to reduced working hours, the provision of additional and study leaves, etc.

7. Accounting for the individual and collective psychology of workers. Without this, it is difficult to plan a career, advanced training, internal movement of people, etc.

8. Creation of the necessary conditions for the implementation of the plan. For example, a plan for advanced training will remain on paper if it is not supported by the organization of a training center, the preparation of programs, and the establishment of contacts with educational institutions.

9. Maximum disclosure of the abilities of employees.

10. Accounting for the economic and social consequences of personnel decisions made in the company. (1, p.15)

Since today the personnel is a decisive factor in the activity of any organization, the degree of achievement of organizational goals testifies to the effectiveness of personnel planning.

Personnel requirements planning is the initial stage of the personnel planning process and is based on data on available and planned jobs, a plan for carrying out organizational and technical measures, a staffing table and a plan for filling vacant positions. When determining the need for personnel in each case, the participation of the heads of the relevant departments is recommended.

The task of personnel recruitment planning is to satisfy in the future the need for personnel from internal and external sources.

Forecasting the number of personnel required to achieve short-term and long-term goals should be combined with an analysis of the external labor market and the labor force available on it.

There are three main groups of personnel planning methods:

The total need, planned by: sales volume per employee; profit before taxes; value added (used in production).

Additional need planned in connection with the expansion of production; the need to compensate retired workers. (2, p. 45)

The calculation of the number of personnel can be current, or operational, and long-term, or prospective.

The current staffing requirement includes the total staffing requirement, basic and additional. The total need of an enterprise for personnel is defined as the sum of the basic need for personnel, which depends on the volume of production and the additional need for personnel.

The basic need of an enterprise for personnel is defined as the private volume of production and output per worker.

Additional staffing requirement is the difference between the total requirement and the availability of staff at the beginning of the billing period.

Long-term need for specialists. This calculation is carried out with a planning depth for a period of more than three years.

There are also methods for calculating the quantitative need for personnel: a method based on the use of data on the time of the labor process; a method for calculating the number of personnel based on data on the labor intensity of the work process, a method for calculating according to service standards, etc.

When determining the need for specialists for the future and the absence of detailed plans for the development of the industry and production, a calculation method is used based on the coefficient of saturation with specialists, which is calculated by the ratio of the number of specialists to the volume of production.

The personnel requirements planning scheme includes the following elements.

Organization plans: logistics plan, financial plan, investment plan, organizational plan, production plan, sales plan, etc. Based on the organization's plans, a preliminary quantitative and qualitative calculation of the future need for personnel is made.

Information about the personnel of the organization. With its help, a forecast of the quantitative and qualitative availability of personnel for the time horizon is carried out.

As a result of the preliminary calculation and forecasting of the availability of personnel, the need for personnel is determined by comparing between the future need for personnel and its availability according to the forecast. Then, planning is carried out to achieve or maintain a quantitative and qualitative correspondence between the future need for personnel and its availability according to the forecast.

Such activities are divided into:

* organizational and technological measures (placement of the production structure, management structure of the organization of labor, technological processes);

* measures to cover the need for personnel (attraction, redistribution, release, development of personnel);

* other measures (deepening the specialization of production and management, improving social services).

* organizational and technological measures (placement of the production structure, labor organization management structure, technological processes);

* measures to cover the need for personnel (attraction, redistribution, release, development of personnel);

* other measures (deepening the specialization of production and management, improving social services). (3, from 25)

The tasks of personnel planning include:

Determination of the goal, strategy, forecasting and establishing their relationship with the overall goal and strategy of the enterprise;

Assessment of the level of dismissal and forecast of turnover;

Forecasting the demand of personnel in the labor market;

Identification of sources of personnel replenishment and assessment of internal reserves.

Assessment of the state of labor potential;

Identification of structural units with an excess or shortage of personnel in general, as well as individual specialists and employees;

Establishing the reasons for the discrepancy between the required and available personnel;

Development of personnel development programs;

Evaluation of the labor functions of personnel in terms of quantitative and qualitative parameters and the study of labor potential.

The personnel planning process finds its logical conclusion in the enterprise plan.

A plan is an official document that reflects:

Forecast of personnel development in the future;

Intermediate and final tasks;

Availability of resources and calculation of personnel costs.

INTRODUCTION

For all organizations - large and small, for-profit and non-profit, for any enterprise, managing people is essential. Without people, there is no organization. Without the right people, without specialists, no organization can achieve its goals and survive. There is no doubt that the management of people, i.e. human resources is one of the most important aspects of the theory and practice of management.

Creating world-class production is always associated with the people who work in the enterprise. The correct principles of organizing production, optimal systems and procedures, of course, play an important role, but the realization of all the possibilities inherent in new management methods depends on specific people, on their knowledge, competence, qualifications, discipline, motivation, ability to solve problems, susceptibility to learning.

Competence is required for a worker who develops new products or equipment, if only because the creation of new good equipment requires, at a minimum, knowledge of how old machines and equipment work. But for an enterprise that has decided today to succeed in the competition, it is necessary that each employee has a very extensive knowledge.

The formation of the necessary competence among employees begins already during the selection of personnel and hiring. People who come to the organization should strive to master aspects of this business as much as possible. It is often more a matter of the will of the workers themselves than of their prior work experience or basic education.

Equally important is the long-term planning of the company's personnel policy.

Today, it is important for human resources departments to achieve more than just timely filling of vacancies in order to maintain production at the proper level. The system of work with personnel should be planned in such a way as to constantly seek to increase in the workforce of the enterprise those people who have good knowledge, and to ensure that there are more and more such workers in each department.

It is desirable to carry out an analysis of environmental factors to make sure that there is a supply of certain professions for the recruitment of personnel by such employees, which are not yet on the staff of the organization.

As a result of the forecast of supply and demand for labor resources, any organization can find out the number of people it needs, their level of qualification and the placement of personnel.

As a result, a coordinated personnel policy can be developed, including systems for recruiting, training, improving and remunerating personnel, as well as a policy of relations between the administration and employees. This strategic plan can be broken down into specific workforce programs.

The concept of workforce planning is simple. But its implementation is difficult. The corporate strategy does not always develop smoothly, because the equipment is not always available on time, or it does not fulfill the tasks that were predicted.

The purpose of writing this course work is to give an idea of ​​​​forecasting and planning the need for staff and ways to improve them.

CHAPTER 1. PLANNING AND FORECASTING IN WORK WITH STAFF

1.1. Essence, goals and objectives of personnel planning

Full employment in our country's economy during the period of stagnation, the creation of new jobs through additional investment, shorter working hours and more holidays have led to an increase in the shortage in the labor market. Technological progress and organizational innovations, improving working conditions, presented new requirements for the level of knowledge and psycho-physiological capabilities of a person. This, in turn, increased the shortage of highly qualified personnel, as well as personnel that meet the psychophysiological requirements of production. With the help of command and control management methods, without having flexible management tools, it was impossible to effectively eliminate or reduce social tension caused by the need to improve the quality of life and, above all, the quality of working life, which finds its expression in decent working conditions and the opportunity for each employee to participate. in managing the affairs of the organization. Increasing the feeling of job satisfaction while improving the use of personnel proved impossible to achieve when striving for the pragmatic inhumane goal of fulfilling the production plan by any means. Administrative methods of leadership ignored the person, did not take into account his needs.

The concept of a long-term, future-oriented personnel policy, taking into account all these "human" aspects, can be implemented with the help of personnel planning. This method of personnel management allows you to coordinate and balance the interests of employers and employees.

The purpose of workforce planning is to provide workers with jobs at the right time and in the right quantity, in accordance with their abilities and inclinations, as well as with the requirements of production. Jobs, in terms of productivity and motivation, should allow workers to develop their abilities in an optimal way, ensure work efficiency and meet the requirements of decent working conditions and employment.

On fig. 1.1 shows the place of personnel planning in the organization's personnel management system.

Personnel planning is carried out both in the interests of the organization and in the interests of its staff. It is important for an organization to have at the right time, in the right place, in the right quantity and with the appropriate qualifications such personnel that is necessary to solve production problems and achieve the goals of the organization. Personnel planning should create conditions for motivating higher productivity and job satisfaction. Workers are attracted primarily by those jobs where conditions are created for the development of their abilities and high and constant earnings are guaranteed. One of the tasks of personnel planning is precisely to take into account the interests of all employees of the organization.

It is important to keep in mind that workforce planning is only effective when it is integrated into the overall planning process of an organization.

HR planning should answer the following questions:

how many workers, what skills, when and where will be needed?

How can we attract the necessary and reduce unnecessary staff without causing social damage?

how best to use staff according to their abilities?

how to ensure the development of personnel to perform new qualified jobs and maintain their knowledge in accordance with the requirements of production?

what costs will the planned personnel activities require?

Rice. 1.1. The place of personnel planning in the personnel management system in the organization

The goals and objectives of personnel planning can be summarized as the following diagram (Fig. 1.2).

Rice. 1.2. Goals and objectives of personnel planning in the organization

In the literature and in practice, the concepts of "personnel planning" and "personnel policy" are often not clearly distinguished. Personnel policy as the adoption of fundamental personnel decisions becomes the planning of goals. In this sense, personnel policy or goal planning is often equated with long-term strategic personnel planning. Therefore, personnel decisions of fundamental long-term importance for the organization should always be based on long-term planning. Thus, personnel planning does not begin after the approval of the personnel policy, but simultaneously with it.

Due to the fact that personnel management covers a complex of various functions, the process of personnel planning is divided into a number of particular problems.

The creation of a systematic and, if possible, covering all functions of personnel planning is of great importance for employers and employees, as well as for state and regional labor and employment authorities, for potential employees of the organization. In principle, systematic planning should reduce the number of erroneous decisions in the future, because due to the high intensity of planning, the quality of decisions is significantly increased compared to those that are made impromptu, based on the current situation. At the same time, the possibility of erroneous decisions in the personnel sphere is very high and their impact on economic and social goals can be very significant. From this point of view, personnel planning is entrusted with the fundamental task of creating the prerequisites for the implementation of the goals of the employer and employees of the organization.

Workforce planning has many dimensions. In addition to the temporary subdivision into long-term, medium-term and short-term planning, it is important to subdivide planning into strategic, tactical and operational. Each of these types of planning has its own goals, activities and potentials for groups of functions of each subsystem of the personnel management system. These dimensions form a hierarchical multidimensional structure of personnel planning, the scheme of which is shown in fig. 1.3 as a 3D image.

Goals must be planned systematically. This includes the goals of the organization and the goals of its people. When planning goals, it is necessary to take into account legal regulations, as well as the initial principles of the organization's personnel policy. The formation of goals in the personnel area occurs permanently through negotiations on a wide range of issues, in which all interested parties with different power potential participate. The goal-setting process becomes a planned process only when it is carried out with a systematic sequence. The stages of the goal planning process are: the search for goals, the analysis of goals and their ranking, the assessment of the possibility of implementation, the choice of goals, the implementation of goals, the control of goals.

Rice. 1.3. Workforce planning scheme in 3D

At the stage of strategic planning, we are talking about general goals, which are then specified in tactical and operational planning.

Action planning encompasses the programming tools that must be applied to the implementation of human resources functions. To plan complex personnel measures for functional subsystems, using the tools, a preliminary analysis of the system of production goals in the field of personnel management is carried out.

Capacity planning means the orientation of personnel planning to identify the potential of personnel to gain advantages in competition with competitors. To determine the personnel potential, an analysis is carried out that determines the degree of use of personnel potential in the future, as well as its preservation and development (especially strategic). Human resources planning covers the strategic development of personnel and incentive systems, strengthening the participation of employees in management, structuring the work of employees in management in order to increase motivational group and individual responsibility, targeted selection of personnel as a conceptual foundation for creating human resources sufficient to ensure the functioning of the organization. Workforce planning encompasses the knowledge, abilities and behaviors required to meet future challenges and is becoming increasingly important.

In strategic planning, we are talking about problem-oriented, long-term planning (for a period of three to ten years). Strategic planning is focused primarily on certain problems. It largely depends on external factors (for example, on economic, technological, social development). Timely recognition of the main development trends, their qualitative assessment are essential tasks of strategic planning. But at the same time, information about the technical policy of the organization and the long-term production program should also be included in strategic planning.

Strategic workforce planning is an integral part of the organization's strategic planning, and it can be more detailed than other private plans of the organization that affect workforce planning. Strategic planning decisions are, as a rule, fundamental and, as a result, guiding decisions, becoming the basis for tactical planning.

Tactical planning can be understood as a medium-oriented transfer of personnel strategies to specific personnel management problems (for a period of one to three years). It should be strictly guided by the goals set by strategic personnel planning. Human resources programs are often drawn up and implemented in accordance with the organization's personnel policy by the middle management of the organization, for example, the head of the human resources department. In tactical terms, in comparison with strategic personnel planning, the details of personnel activities are recorded much more detailed and differentiated. Tactical personnel planning can be considered as a kind of bridge between global, long-term, strategic personnel planning and operational planning.

Operational personnel planning can be characterized as short-term (up to one year), focused on achieving individual operational goals. The operational plan contains precisely defined goals and specific activities aimed at achieving these goals, as well as the allocated material resources, indicating their type, quantity and time. Operational plans are distinguished by detailed elaboration of details, which, due to their operational nature, are better controlled than global strategic plans. Their compilation is possible only on the basis of accurate information, which in most cases is poorly generalizable.

Problem-oriented strategic planning, carried out in the most general terms, needs to be concretized in short-term detailed operational plans, and the settings for short-, medium- and long-term private plans must be adjusted each time to take into account new information about the future. This ability to adapt to alternative situations is called the flexibility or elasticity of planning. This is an important criterion for the quality of planning.

The first problem with any planning, especially long-term planning, is the presence of gaps in information and uncertainty in the initial situation. Planning is related to forecasting, which more or less reliably predicts that certain events will occur in the future under certain conditions, while planning establishes how to act in order to obtain specific desired results in the future. Forecasts often become the basis for planning.

The second problem can be attributed to a particular difficulty in personnel planning, generated by the fact that many planned indicators are only difficult (or not at all) to be quantified, and therefore the consequences of changes in the most important factors cannot be accurately taken into account in private plans.

The third problem is closely related to the complexity of many types of planning - the need to coordinate individual plans. Even if all important influencing factors were taken into account and it was known for sure that they would definitely appear in the future, the ideal reduction of production goals to the optimum - due to the interdependence of individual production plans - could only be carried out in the process of production planning, in which all important planned indicators will be set at the same time.

In practice, the coordination of individual plans occurs sequentially within the framework of general production planning, and this procedure is often determined by the so-called law of equal-sized planning, which states that in the short term all private plans must be coordinated with the weakest link in production (bottleneck), based on which all areas of planning one by one are adjusted to the capacity of the bottleneck. At the same time, long-term planning should strive to overcome this bottleneck. When balancing individual plans, in practice, the total integration of planning areas is hardly possible. Rather, partial integration prevails, in which, for example, personnel planning is consistent with production and sales planning. Personnel planning in practice is often carried out not for all, but only for individual personnel functions (subsystems).

When conducting workforce planning, it is necessary to collect a lot of data, transfer it, enter it into a computer, process it and evaluate it. This task can often be solved only with the help of a personnel information system. The use of personnel-related data raises the issue of data security and protection. At the same time, we are talking about protection from abuse when using information about personnel. The concept of "data protection" refers to what information about personnel should be protected and from whom, as well as how this data should be protected.

Personnel planning is not only based on information about jobs and personnel, but is also tied to general economic information to the same extent.

Personnel planning is implemented through the implementation of a whole range of interrelated activities, combined in an operational plan for working with personnel.

1.2. Operational plan of work with personnel

An operational plan for working with personnel is a set of interrelated personnel activities aimed at realizing the specific goals of the organization and each employee and covering the planning of all types of work with personnel in the organization. It is drawn up, as a rule, for a year.

The structure of a typical operational plan for working with personnel in an organization is shown in fig. 2.1.

Rice. 2.1. The structure of a typical operational plan for working with personnel in an organization

To develop it, it is necessary to collect the following information using specially compiled questionnaires: information about the permanent staff (first name, patronymic, last name, place of residence, age, time of entry to work, etc.); on the structure of personnel (qualification, gender and age, national structure; the proportion of disabled people, the proportion of workers, employees, skilled workers, etc.); on staff turnover; about the loss of time as a result of downtime, due to illness; about the length of the working day (fully or partly employed, working in one, several or night shifts, the duration of vacations); on the wages of workers and employees (its structure, additional wages, allowances, payment according to the tariff and above the tariff); on social services provided by the state (expenses for social needs allocated in accordance with laws, tariff agreements, voluntarily).

Questionnaires should be designed in such a way that, along with production goals, they can also serve personnel planning. Information about personnel can be systematized and presented in the form of a diagram shown in Fig. 2.2.

Rice. 2.2. Staff Information

Personnel information is a collection of all operational information, as well as their processing processes for personnel planning. It must meet the following requirements:

Simplicity - information should contain as much data (and only to the extent) as necessary in this case;

Visibility - information should be presented in such a way that you can quickly determine the main thing, avoid verbosity. To do this, you need to use tables, graphs, color design of the material;

Unambiguity - information should not be unclear, in their interpretation one should follow the semantic, syntactic and logical unambiguity of the material;

Comparability - information should be given in comparable units and refer to comparable objects both within the organization and outside it;

Continuity - information about personnel submitted for different time periods must have the same calculation methodology and the same forms of presentation;

Relevance - information must be fresh, operational and timely, i.e. provided without delay.

Personnel requirements planning is the initial stage of the personnel planning process and is based on data on available and planned jobs, a plan for carrying out organizational and technical measures, a staffing table and a plan for filling vacant positions. When determining the need for personnel in each case, the participation of the heads of the relevant departments is recommended. The staffing planning scheme is shown in fig. 2.3.

Rice. 2.3. Personnel Requirement Planning Scheme

1.3. Personnel marketing

Personnel marketing is a type of management activity aimed at determining and covering the need for personnel.

Recently, an entrepreneurial-market approach has begun to prevail in work with personnel, in which labor, its conditions and jobs are considered as products of marketing. Western European companies have been using marketing methods in personnel management since the 70s. In the approaches that exist in foreign organizations to determine the composition and content of personnel marketing tasks, two main principles should be distinguished.

The first involves considering the tasks of personnel marketing in a broad sense. Personnel marketing in this case refers to a certain philosophy and strategy of human resource management. Personnel (including potential ones) are considered as external and internal clients of the organization. The purpose of such marketing is the optimal use of human resources by creating the most favorable working conditions that contribute to increasing its efficiency, developing a partnership and loyalty to the company in each employee. In fact, this is the “sale” of the company to its own employees. The principle of personnel marketing in its broad interpretation is based on market thinking, which distinguishes it from traditional administrative concepts of personnel management.

The second principle involves the interpretation of personnel marketing in a narrower sense - as a special function of the personnel management service. This function is aimed at identifying and covering the needs of the enterprise in human resources.

The main difference between the above principles of allocation of personnel marketing tasks is as follows. A broad interpretation of personnel marketing implies its attribution to one of the elements of the organization's personnel policy, implemented through the solution of a set of tasks of the personnel management service (Development of a target system, needs planning, business assessment, career management, motivation, etc.). In a narrow sense, personnel marketing involves the allocation of certain specific activities of the personnel management service, and this activity is relatively isolated from other areas of work of the personnel service.

It should be noted that both considered principles do not contradict the definition of personnel marketing given at the beginning of the section.

Below are the provisions that characterize personnel marketing as a specific, relatively isolated function of the organization's personnel management service.

The task of personnel marketing (or "personnel marketing") is to control the situation in the labor market in order to effectively cover the need for personnel and thereby achieve the goals of the organization.

Marketing activity in the field of personnel is a complex of interrelated stages for the formation and implementation of a personnel marketing plan. The general methodology of personnel marketing is based on the main provisions of the theory of "production" marketing.

The scheme of the main stages of marketing activities in the field of personnel can be illustrated in Fig. 3.1.

Rice. 3.1. General scheme of marketing activities in the field of personnel

The initial information for determining the directions of marketing activities, the formation of a personnel marketing plan and measures for its implementation is provided by an analysis of external and internal factors. Such analysis is the starting point of marketing activities.

External factors are understood as the conditions that the organization as a subject of management, as a rule, cannot change, but must take into account in order to correctly determine the qualitative and quantitative needs for personnel and the optimal sources to cover this need.

The external factors that determine the content of personnel marketing include the following factors presented in Table. 3.1.

Table 3.1.

External factors that determine the direction of personnel marketing

Factor name

Characteristics of factors

The situation on the labor market

It is determined by general economic, demographic processes, the level of unemployment in a given time period, the structural reserve army of labor, etc. These characteristics of the situation on the labor market form two basic concepts, the actual expression of which is the subject of analysis in personnel marketing:

demand for personnel, its quantitative structure; supply in the field of personnel (situation in the field of educational institutions, training centers, employment authorities, dismissals from organizations, etc.)

Technology development

Determines the change in the nature and content of labor, its subject orientation, which in turn forms changes in the requirements for specialties and jobs, training and retraining of personnel

Features of conservation needs

Accounting for this factor allows us to imagine the structure of the motivational core of potential employees of the organization, determined by the nature of the emerging social, industrial relations at a given point in time.

Development of legislation

When addressing personnel marketing issues, one should take into account the issues of labor legislation, its possible changes in the foreseeable period of time, the specifics of legislation in the field of labor protection, employment, etc.

Personnel policy of competing organizations

Studying the forms and methods of working with personnel and competing organizations in order to develop their own behavioral strategy aimed at changing personnel policy

The above factors in relation to the organization are external, i.e. largely independent of her actions. They need to be considered as the external environment of the organization in the field of personnel marketing. Accounting for this environment allows you to avoid major mistakes in the development of marketing activities.


Internal factors are understood as those that are largely amenable to control by the organization. The main internal factors are presented in table. 3.2.

Table 3.2.

Internal factors that determine the direction of personnel marketing

Factor name

Characteristics of factors

Organization goals

This factor can be considered common to "industrial" marketing and personnel marketing. The clarity and specificity of the goal-setting system determines the strict direction of the long-term policy of the organization. Its goals and objectives form the marketing strategy both in the field of production and sale of products, and in the field of personnel.

Financial resources

An accurate assessment of the needs and possibilities of the organization in financing personnel management measures determines the choice of alternative or compromise options in the field of planning the need for personnel, its coverage, the use of personnel, their training and retraining, etc.

Personnel potential of the organization

This factor needs both the environment of marketing activities and personnel management in general. It is associated with an assessment of the capabilities of HR specialists, with the correct distribution of responsibilities between them, which largely determines the success of the implementation of the personnel marketing plan.

Sources of coverage of staffing needs

This factor can be considered as internal in terms of the organization's ability to choose those sources of covering staffing needs that correspond to the state of other internal and external factors: the organization's goals, financial resources, technology development trends, etc.

Full and accurate accounting of all the above factors determines the level and features of the implementation of the main areas of marketing activities in the field of personnel. Personnel marketing is a set of measures for the selection of a specific "to-ar" - personnel capable of ensuring the achievement of the goals and objectives of the organization.

The main directions of personnel marketing can be defined by analogy with general (“industrial”) marketing. Such areas of personnel marketing are: development of requirements for personnel; determination of the need for personnel;

calculation of planned costs for the acquisition and further use of personnel; choice of ways to cover the need for staff.

The development of requirements for personnel is carried out on the basis of the staffing table, current and prospective analysis of the requirements for positions and jobs. The development of requirements for personnel consists in the formation of qualitative characteristics of personnel: abilities, motivations and properties.

The expected costs of acquiring and employing personnel are made up of such components as external and internal costs, which may be one-time or current. External non-recurring costs include: payment for contractual relations with educational institutions, commercial structures for the selection and training of personnel, training centers with employment regulation bodies (labor exchanges), etc. External current costs include: the costs of research and operational work in the field of personnel marketing (collection and analysis of information, advertising costs, entertainment expenses, business trips of marketing services employees, etc.). Internal one-time costs include: capital investments in equipping new jobs and re-equipping existing ones, investing in additional construction and equipping of social infrastructure facilities, educational units, etc. Internal current costs are made up of the cost of remuneration of new employees or employees with new qualifications, including various social benefits, etc.

The choice of ways to cover the need for personnel depends on the influence of two other areas of marketing activity - the development of professional requirements for personnel and the determination of the cost of acquiring and further using personnel.

The essence of marketing work on choosing ways to cover the need for personnel is reduced to the following main stages: (1) establishing sources for covering the need; (2) identifying ways to attract staff; (3) analysis of sources and ways in terms of their compliance with the requirements of the qualitative and quantitative parameters of potential employees, as well as the costs associated with the use of a particular source and the way to attract personnel; (4) selection of alternative or combined options for sources and routes.

The following sources can be identified as sources of covering the need for personnel:

Educational institutions of various levels and levels of training;

Commercial training centers;

Intermediary recruiting firms;

Employment centers (labor exchanges);

Various professional associations and associations;

Related organizations;

Free labor market;

Own internal sources.

Internal sources of covering the need for personnel include: the release, retraining and relocation of personnel from work sites that have personnel reserves, or in connection with changes in the range and production volumes, mechanization and automation of technological processes, and the removal of products from production.

The work on the movement of personnel should be preceded by an analysis of the rationality of the organization of labor, the placement of personnel, and the use of employees' working time. The movement of employees within the organization can in some cases prevent their departure associated with job dissatisfaction.

When determining ways to cover additional staffing needs, two types of such ways are usually distinguished according to the degree of participation of the organization in the process of acquiring employees: active and passive.

We list the active ways to cover the need for personnel:

The organization recruits staff directly in educational institutions through the conclusion of bilateral agreements with both this educational institution and the participant in the training;

The organization submits applications for vacancies to local or interregional employment centers (labor exchanges);

The organization uses the services of personnel consultants (they may also perform intermediary functions for the selection of candidates) and the services of specialized intermediary recruitment firms (commercial labor exchanges);

The organization recruits new personnel through its employees. This happens mainly in two directions: recruiting candidates from the family circle of employees and recruiting candidates in other organizations.

Let's name the passive ways to cover the need for personnel:

The organization announces its vacancies through advertisements in the media and special publications;

The organization awaits applicants after posting local announcements.

In table. 3.3 shows the dependence of the choice of ways to obtain personnel on the situation on the labor market. Alphanumeric indexing indicates: the corresponding group (A - active, P - passive) and the serial number of the path (based on the above sequence of their description).

Table 3.3

Ways to attract staff and the situation on the labor market

The listed options for attracting personnel are associated with external sources of covering the need for personnel. Own organization can be considered as an internal source. The ways to cover the need for personnel in this case are:

The movement of employees from one unit to another, and it can occur either with or without appropriate retraining;

Moving employees to a higher hierarchical level of the organization (usually with additional education or qualifications);

Formation of a new functional role of an employee within the framework of the previous workplace with appropriate additional training.

To study all the necessary factors influencing the formation of marketing activities, a specialist needs information, the quality and completeness of which determines the effectiveness of the analysis of the situation on the labor market. Sources of information for personnel marketing can be:

Curricula and plans for the release of specialists in educational institutions;

Curricula for continuing education in commercial training centers and for retraining courses at labor exchanges;

Analytical materials published by state bodies for labor and employment (such materials can also be prepared at the request of organizations);

Information messages of employment services (labor exchanges);

Specialized magazines and special publications (for example, a directory of qualification requirements for applicants published in European countries). Organizations can order analytical reviews of the latest specialized journals from information services of government or commercial bodies;

A network of scientific and technical libraries, which can also prepare thematic analytical reviews;

Technical exhibitions, conferences, seminars; economic publications in newspapers;

Presentations of companies in educational institutions, organization of so-called "open days" by educational institutions, etc.

Thus, the main tasks of personnel marketing are:

Market research to establish the current and future needs of the organization in the quantity and quality of personnel;

Studying the development of production for the modern preparation of new jobs and requirements for employees;

Search and acquisition of personnel whose characteristics meet the requirements of the organization.

Personnel marketing creates the basis for the final selection of personnel.

It should be noted that there are different approaches to solving the problem of meeting the need for personnel at enterprises in Japan, Western Europe and the United States.

In Japan, recruitment is carried out, as a rule, for lower positions. This is due to the “lifetime employment” policy that dominates in many Japanese enterprises, as well as some features of the Japanese education system, in which the future employee of a company is trained as a “generalist” specialist, who has a general philosophical, worldview, rather than a highly specialized one. preparation. It is believed that mastering specific labor skills in any area is the prerogative of a particular Japanese company, and not an educational institution. Hence, the need for personnel of lower positions in Japanese enterprises is covered by external sources, and the need for personnel of higher positions is provided by internal sources.

Western European (in particular, German) enterprises in many cases give preference to internal sources of covering the need for personnel, although formally the conditions for the competition for filling a vacant position are equivalent both for external applicants and for the company's own employees. American firms do not distinguish between the importance of internal and external sources of covering the need for personnel, providing equal opportunities in the selection for a vacant position to both their employees and external applicants.

3. Planning work with personnel

The most important means of managing the system of work with personnel and the main link of the entire economic mechanism is planning, to which high demands are made in modern conditions. The theoretical basis for planning personnel work is government decisions on socio-economic policy, as well as the results of economic activity and scientific research in the field of recruitment, training and use of personnel. The practical basis for planning work with personnel is the plans for the economic and social development of collectives of production associations, enterprises and organizations.

The main types of planning are long-term, long-term and current. Long-term planning covers a period of at least 10-15 years, long-term - a five-year period, current - up to one year.

Long-term planning usually takes the form of targeted comprehensive programs. The comprehensive program "Personnel" provides for the following main areas of work with personnel: improving the planning and organization of personnel work, creating an integrated personnel management system based on the use of electronic computers; improving the systems of recruitment, training and advanced training of personnel, improving their socio-demographic and professional qualification structure; strengthening labor discipline and stabilizing production teams on the basis of all possible reduction of loss of working time, staff turnover and improvement of working conditions, life and leisure of workers. When developing the target program "Personnel", the main provisions of modern personnel policy, the features of the demographic situation associated with the balance of labor resources, as well as the processes of release and redistribution of workers are taken into account; the most important trends in scientific and technological progress in production; increasing demands to improve planning and organization of management; accumulated experience in the implementation of the main directions for improving work with personnel in previous periods. The purpose of such programs is to create conditions for providing production units with stable qualified personnel, a constant increase in labor productivity through the implementation of program activities, reducing the level of staff turnover and loss of working time, as well as improving the structure of personnel in accordance with the requirements of the development of modern production.

On the basis of long-term plans for work with personnel, long-term and current plans are developed, which together represent a single system for planning personnel work in production, which makes it possible to comprehensively implement the most important processes of forming the personnel potential of an enterprise, association, industry. The five-year plan of work with personnel includes three main sections, which reflect activities:

to improve the composition of the staff of workers, managers and specialists (indicators of the qualitative composition of personnel, analysis of their renewal and calculation of future needs, determination of sources of recruitment, determination of requirements for various categories of workers and development of vocational programs for the main professions, assessment of personnel and creation of a reserve for promotion, work with young specialists and young workers, measures aimed at improving the selection and promotion of management personnel, etc.);

for the training, retraining and advanced training of personnel, the creation of a unified system of continuous education (indicators of general educational and professional training of employees, work on training and advanced training, training of a reserve; creation of an educational and material base, development of permanent forms of continuous education of personnel in production);

for the education of personnel (strengthening production and labor discipline, mentoring, etc.).

The current plan specifies the indicators of long-term and long-term plans for work with personnel and reflects the issues of staffing units with the necessary employees, their placement and training, performance evaluation and advanced training, control over the rational use of working time and implementation of planned activities for work with personnel.

Planning of personnel work in production is carried out on the basis of principles common to the entire system of planning and forecasting, the most important of which are the scientific nature of planning and forecasting, their continuity; balance between resources and needs; a combination of sectoral and territorial approaches to planning; an integrated and systematic approach to the development of plans.

For ministries and departments, it is expedient to draw up plans for working with personnel of all three types, taking into account the basic principles of planning, and in associations and enterprises - only five-year and annual ones. At the same time, the personnel work planning system should include the following mandatory indicators: the number of personnel by categories and positions; the proportion of employees of the administrative apparatus in the total number of employees, the cost of their maintenance; the number of workers, specialists and managers who should be trained in various types of educational institutions, including in the system of training the management personnel reserve; the number of training places in the system of training and advanced training of personnel, the availability of training places (the ratio of the actual number of training places to the required one); turnover, turnover and turnover of personnel of various categories and professional groups; loss of working time due to violations of labor discipline, etc. This allows for a truly comprehensive planning of all the most important links, problems and processes of working with personnel in production. At the same time, the leading place in the personnel work planning system is given to the development of plans for the need for personnel and sources of its provision.

Thus, the planning of personnel work includes a scientifically based determination of the prospective and current need for personnel of the necessary specialties and qualifications, an assessment of the effectiveness of the use of personnel in production, forms and types of training and advanced training; determination of the optimal placement, movement and promotion of executives and specialists; conducting educational work in teams.

One of the main directions for improving work with personnel is the introduction of personnel support subsystems for automated control systems. The country's experience in the functioning of such subsystems shows that the subsystem of the ACS "Personnel" allows you to solve issues related to accounting for personnel, the movement of labor resources on the scale of an organization, department and its individual divisions. In addition, it also becomes possible to obtain the necessary information about the quantitative and qualitative composition of personnel. At the same time, the quality of accounting is significantly improved, the reporting period is reduced, and the volume of personnel information is expanding. Solving the problems of this subsystem on the basis of information and reference arrays and the corresponding mathematical software creates the prerequisites for the transition to optimal planning and organization of work with personnel in production.

Planning personnel work in the context of automated control systems requires the creation of appropriate standards, calculation methods, the development of various classifications, the creation of promising models of specialists and managers, the improvement of requirements for the personality and workplace of the employee, as well as the forms of selection, training and placement of personnel. With the direct participation of employees of the personnel departments of enterprises and organizations, the following are developed: the composition of the input information on personnel; composition and coding system of classifiers by frames; composition and forms of input and output documents; technological schemes for collecting, registering, transmitting and receiving information; methods of protecting information arrays from unauthorized access; measures to introduce the system into production operation.

The main task in creating the subsystems of the ACS "Personnel" should be the automation of the leading operations to ensure the functions of personnel management. This includes planning the need for personnel, training, retraining and advanced training of personnel, their distribution among structural divisions; centralized accounting of executives and specialists, highly skilled workers; study and selection of candidates for the reserve for nomination; accounting of young specialists and young workers, their mentors; accounting and analysis of the composition, movement and turnover of personnel; control over the implementation of decisions on work with personnel; formation of statistical reporting on personnel, etc.

Introducing new opportunities to improve the work with personnel, electronic computing technology makes high demands on the management process. This applies primarily to the organization of workflow and information, a formalized description of computational and logical operations for their processing. The study of various areas of application of personnel information requires the expansion of accounting information compared to those currently used (for example, data on assessing the performance of employees, as well as information of a disciplinary, medical nature, etc.), which provides for the issuance of the most complete information about each employee of the enterprise and the industry as a whole. When developing the information basis of the ACS "Personnel", it is taken into account that information about personnel should come from a large number of sources (HR departments, personnel training, labor and wages, social development, financial, medical unit and other departments of the enterprise).

The accumulated experience in the implementation of automated systems for personnel shows that the development of information support is based on a number of principles, which include: the unity of the composition of the information base; consistency and compatibility of information on management levels; unification and structuring of personal information exchange forms; homogeneity of information input at its repeated use.

4. Forecasting in personnel management

The preliminary stage of planning personnel work is forecasting, which serves as the basis for the preparation of planned decisions and tasks. Forecasting is used to predict changes in the structure and dynamics of personnel work in the future based on an analysis of the past and present, and is based on the development goals of an enterprise, association, industry, which must be achieved at a certain perspective stage. The dynamics of the development of organizations and industries is due to the variety of factors affecting these economic systems, the presence of mobile links between individual links in the management structure. Therefore, the essence of forecasting the structure of personnel, ways to improve it, is determined by the foresight of changes in the systems of selection, training, placement and education of personnel, the state of demographic changes in the region and the country, and the increase in requirements for personnel and personnel work. Forecasting is based on the processing of the necessary information. The main stages of the forecasting procedure:

retrospection - the study of the state of personnel work and the structure of personnel in the past (over the past 10-15 years);

diagnosis - determination of the nature, state of personnel work and the structure of personnel on the basis of their comprehensive study. Here, first of all, trends in the development of the structure of personnel are revealed, ways to improve personnel work, the goals of forecasting and the range of personnel tasks to be solved are determined;

the choice of method is the most crucial stage in predicting personnel work. Methods can be formalized and non-formalized: in the first case, the apparatus of mathematical statistics is used, in the second - expert assessments and qualitative proposals based on the latest achievements of science and practice in the field of selection, training, placement and education of personnel;

forecast - foreseeing the main changes and structural shifts in the professional and qualification and socio-demographic composition of personnel, organizing and conducting personnel work in production.

The main methods of planning and forecasting personnel work include the balance method of planning, the method of comparative analysis, the method of expert assessments, system analysis, modeling, economic and mathematical methods, etc. On their basis, the dynamics of social and personnel processes in the labor collectives of construction sites and enterprises is analyzed, patterns in their development, specific ways of optimizing these processes are determined, taking into account the specifics of the activities of a particular organization (enterprise). For example, the balance method of planning is to establish a dynamic balance between labor resources, on the one hand, and their distribution in accordance with the needs of production, on the other. Methods of system analysis are used mainly in the development of a program for the development of personnel work for the long term and include the study and description of the principles of operation of the personnel management system in production; analysis of the features of the most important components of the system, their interrelations and interdependencies; establishing similarities and differences between the system under study and other personnel management systems; transfer, according to certain characteristics, of the properties of the existing personnel management model to the properties of the system under study. Expert assessments are a special kind of quantitative and qualitative characteristics of certain aspects of social and personnel processes and are determined on the basis of judgments made by experts (scientists and practitioners).

Anticipating changes in professional orientation and professional selection of personnel, forecasting structural changes in their qualitative composition, the system of training and advanced training are the most important tasks of personnel policy at an enterprise, organization, and industry. These tasks are successfully solved with the help of the complex application of various methods for predicting personnel work.

Practice shows that methods for predicting personnel work and improving the qualitative composition of personnel at the level of enterprises and organizations are still used sporadically, although modern personnel policy requires their integrated use in the development of socio-economic programs for the development of enterprises, associations, and industries. The most urgent at present are the problems of applying methods for predicting personnel work based on the use of electronic computers.

Thus, plans for work with personnel are an organic component of the system of personnel work in production. At the same time, the most important requirement of modern personnel policy is implemented through plans, which is reflected in the proactive principle of selection and training of all categories of workers. This means that when developing long-term, five-year and current plans, it is necessary to calculate and take into account the dynamics of the movement of personnel for managers, specialists, workers, taking into account the planned dynamics of the organization of production. As a result, the role of analysis of various personnel processes increases, which should precede all work on the preparation of forecasts and personnel management plans. The most important analytical indicators of the state of personnel work in production include the qualitative composition of managers, specialists and workers, the level of compliance of professional training with the technical development of production, the level of labor discipline, turnover and turnover of personnel.

5. Social planning in production

Since the practical basis for planning personnel work is the plans for the economic and social development of the teams of the relevant organizations, insofar as employees of personnel services need knowledge and skills in the field of social planning.

Social planning at the level of an enterprise (association) includes the planning of progressive changes in the structure of the team, the growth of material well-being and the improvement of the cultural and technical level of workers, the improvement of the nature and content of labor activity. The more specifically these plans take into account the characteristics of each group - social (workers, specialists, employees), socio-demographic (youth, women, working pensioners, etc.), as well as gradations within each of them, the more effective is the plan of social development. When drawing up such a plan, its initial indicators should be based on a real model of the socio-professional structure of the work collective, which also takes into account its socio-psychological characteristics.

The structure of the plan and its sections, depending on the degree of knowledge of the processes of social development and the accumulated experience of planning and forecasting, can vary significantly in different teams, but, as a rule, they reflect the main sections and directions shown in Fig. 7.

The mastery of personnel services by the laws of formation and implementation of plans for the social development of teams is today not a tribute to fashion, but a new stage in the activity of "human factor services", associated with the need for deep penetration into the essence of socio-economic and socio-psychological processes in production.

When forming an optimal management structure, it is of great importance to determine the number of structural units directly subordinate to one leader, since a person’s ability to perceive information, process it and make decisions is limited. The total number of independent structural units and individual employees (Sd), reporting directly to the director of the enterprise or another line manager, can be calculated using the formula

Sd = 7.87 + 0.00019 Yap.p, (3)

where Yapp is the number of industrial and production personnel.

For example, for managers of small enterprises (up to 300 employees), the rational number of directly subordinates is 5-9 people, for medium enterprises (1-5 thousand employees


general public) - 12-14 people, for large (5-7 thousand employees) - 16-18 people, for associations (more than 7 thousand employees) - up to 20 people.

Literature

Kurosheva G. M. Planning for the reproduction of qualified personnel in the region. - L .: Publishing house of Leningrad State University, 1985.

Pushkarev N. F. Work with personnel: organizational and technical support. - M.: Knowledge, 1988. - S. 1-14.

The system of work with management personnel. - M.: Thought, 1984.

Leadership efficiency. - M.: Thought, 1982.

Shchekin G.V. Theory and practice of personnel work: general provisions: In 2 hours - K., 1990.

Methods for determining the need for personnel

11.1. Planning the number and composition of employees

The main form of planning and organizing the activities of enterprises is the plan for economic and social development (broken down by years). The enterprise independently develops and approves plans based on the use of various initial data and control figures, government orders, long-term economic standards, as well as direct orders from consumers for products, works or services. When planning economic and social development, the enterprise determines the total number of employees, their professional and qualification composition, states.

The initial data for determining the required number of workers, their professional and qualification composition are the production program, output standards, the planned increase in labor productivity, and the structure of work. With enlarged calculations, the total need of an enterprise (association) for personnel (H) is determined by the ratio of production volume (Op) to the planned output per worker (B):




More accurate calculations of the number should be carried out separately by categories of personnel: for pieceworkers - based on the labor intensity of products, the working time fund and the level of compliance with the standards; for time workers - taking into account the fixing of zones and the labor intensity of maintenance, the norms for the number of personnel, the labor intensity of normalized tasks, the fund of working hours; for students - taking into account the need for the preparation of new working and planned terms of study; for service personnel and fire and guard guards - taking into account standard norms and staffing tables.

In addition to the general, there is also an additional need for personnel, which is the difference between the total need and the actual availability of personnel at the beginning of the planning period. The additional need for workers is calculated for the planned year and for each quarter, since the volume of production and the loss of workers by quarter is uneven. The additional need for specialists is determined for the planned year by the number of vacancies based on the approved staff, as well as the expected departure of these workers for various reasons and the partial replacement of practitioners.

The total need for specialists is determined depending on the complexity of the assigned functions, controllability standards, the degree of mechanization of management, and taking into account typical staffing tables. The growing role of the higher education system in the current conditions makes it necessary to increase the level of planning for the training of specialists and increase the efficiency of their use. The total need for specialists (A) is the sum of:

A \u003d Hs + D, (5)

where Chs - the number of specialists in the industry, region, enterprise at the beginning of the planning period; D - additional need for specialists. The calculation of the additional need for specialists includes three main elements:

Development of the industry, i.e. scientifically based determination of the necessary need for an increase in positions filled by specialists in connection with the expansion of production or an increase in the volume of work;

partial replacement of practitioners holding positions of specialists with higher education;

compensation for the natural retirement of employees holding positions of specialists and managers.

Additional demand for job growth (Dp) (development of the industry, region, enterprise) is the difference between the total needs for specialists for the planned (Apl) and base (Ab) periods and is determined by the formula

The additional need for a partial replacement of practitioners is determined taking into account the opportunities for their training in higher educational institutions on the job. The additional need to compensate for the natural retirement of specialists and practitioners is determined on the basis of an analysis of the patterns of their retirement. As practice shows, the size of the natural retirement of specialists and practitioners replacing the positions of specialists does not exceed 2-4% of their total number per year. The additional need to compensate for the natural attrition of specialists (Dv) is calculated by multiplying the total need for specialists in the planning period (Apl) by the average annual attrition rate of specialists and practitioners (/Sv):

Dv \u003d Apl X (7)

11.2. Determining the need for specialists

According to the planning period, the current and future needs for specialists are distinguished. The current additional requirement is the required number of specialists in the base year. This indicator is the basis for planning for the future requirements. The prospective need is determined for 10 years or more. Let us present the currently existing methods for calculating the prospective need for specialists.

When determining the need for specialists for a period of up to five years, the staff-nomenclature method is used, which is based on planned indicators for the development of production, typical structures and staff, as well as the range of positions to be filled by specialists with higher education. The staff-nomenclature method, in the presence of planned indicators, makes it possible to determine both the quantitative side of the need for specialists (based on staffing tables) and the qualitative side (based on the nomenclature of positions that determine the level of qualification and profile of specialist training). Typical nomenclature of positions to be filled by specialists with higher education, as well as standard staffing tables are developed and approved by ministries and departments. Typical nomenclatures contain the names of management functions, structural divisions, positions, as well as the names of higher education specialties, the presence of which is necessary for candidates to fill these positions. An example of such a nomenclature is given in Table. 5.

Table 5

Nomenclature of positions to be filled by specialists with higher education

A typical nomenclature of positions is developed at all levels of management - from an enterprise to a ministry - and serves as the initial basis for developing standards for the saturation of specialists and the need for them in the context of specialties. The final line of the nomenclature of positions represents the standard number of specialists with higher education, therefore, the quality of the development of nomenclatures depends on the reliability of the calculations of the need, on the basis of which plans for the training of highly and medium-skilled specialists are formed. In the development of nomenclatures, along with employees of personnel services, employees of technical, economic planning, production and other departments that perform the functions of current and long-term planning take part.

In order to make the nomenclature of positions more flexible, it is advisable, depending on the specifics of the industry and enterprise, to provide for each position several specialties in order to better take into account the prospects for the development of production.

When determining the need for specialists in the long term and in the absence of detailed planned indicators, the method of calculating the saturation coefficient is used, which is calculated from the ratio of the number of specialists per 1 thousand employees or 1 million UAH. volume of production and can be used in determining the need for specialists both for the industry and for a separate organization, enterprise. The need for specialists with higher education (A) according to this method is calculated using the following formula:

A \u003d% x Kn, (8)

where V is the average number of employees;

Kn - normative coefficient of saturation with specialists. The normative saturation coefficient is calculated as the ratio of the normative number of specialists (the final line of the nomenclature of positions) to the average number of employees in the year corresponding to the development of the nomenclature of positions.

The universal and most reliable method for calculating the need for management personnel is the normative method, which involves the development of a special methodology for calculating the standards for the number of managers and employees, providing the optimal number of specialists for each industry, organization, enterprise, taking into account the organizational and technical conditions of a particular production. This method is based on the application of load, maintenance, manageability and number of specialists.

Load and service standards can be applied in non-production sectors (for example, health care, education, consumer services, etc.), and it is advisable to apply standards for the number of specialists at enterprises in the material production sectors (industry and construction). The use of headcount standards in the calculations of the need involves establishing a relationship between the quantitative and qualitative indicators of the personnel of specialists and the main technical and economic indicators of the enterprise's activity (the name of the volume of output, labor productivity, the cost of fixed production assets, etc.):

where Нц is the standard for the number of specialists with higher education; H - the number of specialists;

/ - the value of the selected technical and economic indicator of the enterprise.

11.3. Methods for calculating the need for workers

Scientific and technological progress in the current conditions of production development is the most important factor and material basis for changing the professional structure of workers, which leads to an increase in the level of planning for their training, rational distribution and use. The solution of these problems is facilitated by the development of balance calculations of the need for professions, which are carried out in order to identify the additional need of an enterprise, organization, industry for workers and link it with the actual availability and structure of local labor resources, improve and develop all existing forms of professional training of workers.

The balance sheet calculations of enterprises should be part of the comprehensive plans for the economic and social development of the relevant teams and be closely linked with the prospects for the development of production, measures for the introduction of new equipment, technology and management organization, ensuring the growth of labor productivity. Linking the required number of workers of an enterprise, organization with the labor resources of the region is carried out by developing balances of jobs and labor resources, a consolidated balance of labor resources and balance calculations: additional need for workers and sources of its provision; the need for the training of skilled workers and the sources of its provision; involvement of youth in education and production.

The balance calculation of the need for the training of skilled workers in organizations and enterprises is developed according to professions and specialties, and in ministries and departments - according to the main groups of professions and includes determining: the number of workers at the beginning and end of the planning period; additional need for skilled workers to increase the number and replace those leaving; sources of additional demand for skilled workers; forms and proportions of training qualified workers; the number of workers released as a result of new methods of management, the scale of redistribution and retraining of the released workers.

The order of balance calculations of the need for workers by profession and the sources of its provision is as follows:

The planned number of workers is shown at the beginning and end of the year. The planned headcount at the enterprise (in the organization) is determined on the basis of plans for the development of production, as well as in accordance with the current industry methods and calculation standards, taking into account the specifics of production. When determining the planned number of workers, it is also necessary to simultaneously identify new professions that arise in connection with the introduction of new equipment and technology.

The additional need for workers is calculated taking into account the increase in the number, replacement of the planned loss and compensation for losses from staff turnover. Additional need for population growth is calculated as the difference between the population at the end and beginning of the year. If the number of workers in a particular profession at the end of the year is less than their number at its beginning, then the resulting difference will mean a reduction in the number of workers in this profession. At the same time, the number of workers in certain progressive professions should increase due to changes in the number of workers in unpromising professions.

The additional need for workers to replace the planned loss is determined based on the analysis of the age composition of workers in each profession, as well as the reporting data of enterprises and organizations on the movement of personnel for planned reasons over the past 3-5 years and other indicators. The planned loss includes natural loss (retirement due to retirement due to age or health reasons, death of employees); departure for study with a break from production; retirement due to conscription into the Armed Forces; retirement due to the end of the term of the employment contract; retirement for other reasons related to production needs and provided for by the current legislation (transfer of workers to the positions of managers, specialists and employees after graduating from higher educational institutions, planned redistribution of labor, etc.).

The additional need for compensation for staff turnover is calculated on the basis of materials from the primary accounting of employees for the last 2-3 years. At the same time, it is necessary to take into account the effectiveness of the implementation of measures aimed at stabilizing production teams.

The overall result of the additional needs of workers for each profession is determined by summing up the indicators of all three types of needs (to increase the number, to replace the planned loss and compensate for turnover). If the sum of the indicators is a negative number, this means that instead of the total additional need, a relative surplus of personnel in this profession has actually formed. It will entail the planned release of workers of certain professions, due to technical progress, improvement of labor organization, structural changes in production and other factors. This surplus is called relative because it can be partially or completely used at a given enterprise by retraining the laid-off workers in new, scarce professions.

3. Sources for meeting the additional need for workers include workers retrained directly at the workplace for new professions from among those released; graduates of secondary schools of the current year who will be hired; graduates of vocational schools aimed at production; workers accepted from the outside (shown separately with the necessary professions and those who do not). The number of workers taken from outside is determined on the basis of the need and real possibilities of recruitment. At the same time, for workers who do not have the necessary professions, training is planned directly at the workplace.

The process of determining the additional need for workers and the sources of its provision is shown schematically in fig. eight.

The compilation and application of balance calculations of the need for workers (see Appendix) involves the constant improvement of the professional and qualification structure of production

natural team. The main directions of such work are to increase the share of skilled workers due to a corresponding decrease in the number of unskilled workers; an increase in the number of workers in promising professions due to a reduction in employment in unpromising ones; a consistent reduction in the number of workers employed in heavy and unskilled labor, primarily in auxiliary and auxiliary work; development and implementation of measures for the professional orientation of young people to professions characterized by a shortage of workers. An analysis of the professional and qualification structure makes it possible to determine possible internal labor reserves for the planning period, to show the most likely sources of layoffs of workers due to technical progress, and to outline the main ways for the most rational and efficient use of workers.

is the process by which top management defines the organization's intent and goals and the means by which they are to be achieved.

Personnel planning - the process of systematically analyzing staffing needs to ensure that the right number of people with the right skills are available, where they are needed, when they are needed.

Human resource planning involves the selection of the workforce available inside the organization and outside it, based on vacancies that are expected in the organization after a certain period of time. Naturally, strategic planning precedes personnel planning.

Specific quantitative and qualitative plans in the field of human resources are determined by the plans of the organization. Note that staff planning is influenced by two factors − need and availability. Forecasting the need for human resources involves determining the number and type of workers needed by their skills and location. This design reflects various factors such as production plans and changes in productivity. To predict the availability of resources, the HR manager will look at internal sources (already hired employees) and external sources (labor market). After analyzing the need for workers and their availability, the firm can determine whether it has a surplus or shortage of employees. If a surplus of workers is predicted, ways must be found to reduce their number. Some of these practices include limited hiring, reduced hours, early retirement, and layoffs. If a shortage of workers is predicted, the firm must obtain the right amount of appropriate quality employees from the labor market.

Since the conditions of the external and internal environment can change rapidly, the process of human resource planning must be ongoing. Changing conditions can affect the organization as a whole, thus requiring extensive changes in forecasts. Planning in general gives managers the ability to anticipate and prepare for changing conditions, while personnel planning, in particular, allows them to be flexible in the area of ​​people management.

5.1.1. Forecasting from Zero

Zero level forecasting technique uses the current level of employment in the organization as a starting point for determining future staffing needs. Essentially, human resource planning uses the same procedure as zero level budgeting, where each budget must be justified annually. If an employee retires, quits or leaves the firm for any other reason, his position is not automatically filled. Instead, an analysis is made to determine whether the firm can justify holding the position. Similar attention is given to the creation of new posts when there appears to be a need for them. The key to predicting from the ground up is a thorough analysis of the human resource needs. In today's globally competitive environment, a vacant position is thoroughly reviewed before a replacement is authorized. Very often, the position is not filled, and the work is distributed among the remaining employees.

5.1.2. Upside down (bottom up) approach

The forecasting method used throughout the organization from the bottom of the organization to higher levels is ultimately a cumulative forecast of employment needs.

Some firms use what might be called a "bottom-up" (bottom-up) technique to forecast employment. In her favor is the argument that the manager in each department is best informed about the needs of the workplace. Using upside down techniques (bottom up) each subsequent level of the organization, starting from the lowest, predicts its needs, ultimately, this will constitute a cumulative forecast of the necessary workers. Forecasting the need for personnel is more effective when managers carry it out systematically, according to current and forecasted needs, while realizing that the HR department needs adequate time to prepare for the use of internal and external sources.

5.1.3. Using Mathematical Models

Another approach to predicting the need for human resources is use of mathematical models to predict future needs. One of the most commonly used metrics for forecasting employment levels is sales volume. There is a positive relationship between demand and the number of workers needed. Using this method, managers can roughly estimate the number of workers required for different levels of demand.

5.1.4. Modeling

Modeling is a technique for conducting an experiment with a real situation using a mathematical model that represents this situation. The model is a generalization of the real world. Thus, modeling is an attempt to represent a real-life situation using mathematical logic in order to predict what will happen. Simulation helps HR managers by allowing them to ask a lot of questions like "what if" without forcing a decision that leads to real results.

In personnel management, modeling can be done to represent relationships between employment levels and many other variables. The manager can then ask questions what if like the following:

What happens if we put 10 percent of the current workforce on overtime?

What happens if the plant starts using two shifts? Three shifts?

The purpose of the model is to enable managers to achieve a significant understanding of a particular problem before making a decision in reality.

5.2. Forecasting the need for human resources

Demand forecast represents an assessment of the number and qualities of employees that the organization will need in the future to achieve its goals. Before making an assessment of the need for human resources, you must first make a forecast of demand for the goods or services of the company. This forecast is then translated into people needs data to provide the metrics needed to meet the demand. For a personal computer firm, the metrics might be expressed as the number of units planned to be produced, the number of purchase requisitions, the number of warranties to be processed, and so on. For example, a weekly production of 1,000 personal computers may require 10,000 hours of work assemblers during a 40-hour work week. Dividing 10,000 hours by 40 hours of the working week gives the answer that 250 assembly workers are required. Similar calculations are made for other types of work required for the production and sale of personal computers.

Demand forecasting gives managers a means to estimate how many and what kind of employees are needed. But there is another side to the coin, as you can see from the following example.

A large manufacturing firm on the West Coast of the United States was preparing to start work at a new plant. Analysts have already determined that there will be demand for a new product for a long time. There were no problems with financing, the equipment was placed. But for two years, production could not start! The administration made a fundamental mistake: it studied the demand side of human resources, but did not study the supply. There were not enough skilled workers on the local labor market to work in the new market. The new workers had to receive a comprehensive education before they could fill the newly created jobs.

Determining whether a firm is able to provide itself with employees with the necessary skills and from what sources is called forecast of. It helps to show whether the required number of employees can be obtained in the company itself, or outside the organization, or from these two sources.

Many of the workers who will need to be placed in future positions may already be employed by the firm. If the firm is small, management probably knows its employees well enough to match their skills and desires to the needs of the company. However, as the organization grows, the recruitment process becomes more complex. Organizations that take people seriously use databases. Succession planning also helps in securing an internal supply of highly qualified management personnel.

Databases include information about all employees - both managerial and non-managerial. Information commonly reported about line workers includes the following:

Basic education and curriculum vitae;

Experience;

Individual skills and knowledge;

Available licenses and certificates;

Training programs completed during the period of work in the organization;

Previous performance appraisals;

professional goals.

Firms may maintain additional databases for their managers. As such, this type of list contains information for replacement or promotion decisions. It will, as far as you can expect, include this kind of data:

Service record and work experience

Basic education

Assessment of strengths and weaknesses

Growth Needs

Potential for promotion now, prospects for further growth

Results of current work

Area of ​​specialization

Preferred Job

Geographic Preferences

Career goals and desires

Expected retirement date

Personal (private) history, including psychological assessment of personality

5.3. Determining the need for personnel

The need for personnel, as in other types of resources, depends on many factors. Since personnel is a special and most important type of resource, and the qualities of employees cannot be accurately measured, it is much more difficult to plan the need for personnel and especially satisfy this need than the need for material and financial resources, and here, even after staffing, there is a high probability of detecting an error allowed at the planning and selection stage.

The need for personnel is influenced by circumstances related to the characteristics of the achieved level of development of the company and the expected state after the completion of the next stage of development. These circumstances can be: the dynamics and forecast of the state of the market in which the organization operates (prospects for business activity and expansion or contraction of the market for goods and services of the company); the company's internal resources, including human resources, and their development (availability of reserves and their size); policy in the field of production, personnel and the economy (what the company usually undertakes, what ways and methods it uses in these areas); the state of the labor market for the required professions (the ratio of supply and demand, the price of workers), etc.

Typically, the need for personnel is determined at the stage of developing programs to implement the development strategy, preparing and developing a business plan.

At the preparatory stage, the prospects for the organizational, economic and production development of the company are coordinated, applications are collected from managers for the acquisition of their divisions.

At the stage of developing a business plan, its sections are linked to each other and balancing in terms of deadlines, performers, resources and sources of their receipt.

Among others, as part of business plans, sections are being developed that are directly related to personnel - these are sections "Personnel" and "Management".

Based on the assessment of the state of the factors affecting the company's need for personnel, missions and policies in the field of personnel, measures are being developed for the planned period: upcoming reductions, recruitment, including key specialists, relocations, advanced training, changes in the system of motivation and evaluation of results, increasing the level of working life and labor safety, etc.

The number of workers is usually determined normative method. Based on the norms of time, production, maintenance or labor intensity of the planned volume of production, the need for workers in the necessary specialties is determined, while the average category of the work planned for execution and workers is linked. Time standards are taken from industry or republican reference books of standards or developed in the organization itself based on experience, examples or by calculation. In a simplified form, the number of piecework workers is determined by the formula:


where t- the total complexity of a certain type of work;

F p - the full useful fund of working time of one employee per year; on average Ф n = 1910 hours;

q n is the coefficient of performance by workers of production standards.



where B is the planned volume of output in a given period in the appropriate units of measurement;

In n - the rate of output per worker in the planning period in the same units of measurement.


The number of employees in the general case is determined by the formula:


where T n is the annual labor intensity of standardized work, determined in accordance with standard time standards and the planned scope of work or by expert means;

T nn - the annual labor intensity of non-standardized work, determined mainly by expert means.


In more detail, the problems of determining the need for personnel and methods for calculating the number of employees of various categories are considered in a number of works devoted to the regulation and organization of labor, personnel management.

Since in the content of the work of employees, and especially specialists and managers, there is a large percentage of non-standardized, creative work, it is difficult to determine the need for specialists and managers. For managers, there are average standards of manageability (Table 5.1).


Table 5.1

Manageability norms




When determining the number of subordinates, the following factors are used:

The level of competence of the manager and subordinates;

The intensity of interaction between groups or individual subordinates;

The volume of non-managerial work of the manager and the need for contacts outside the unit;

Similarity or differences in the content of the work of subordinates (with the same work, the allowable number of subordinates is greater);

Breadth of new issues in the unit (share of innovations);

The level of standardization and unification of management and production procedures in the organization;

The degree of physical differences in activity.

In intersectoral methodological materials on improving the organizational structures of the management of enterprises and production associations, the norms of manageability are given:

For heads of organizations and their first deputies - no more than 10-12 people. (divisions);

For functional departments - at least 7-10 people;

For functional bureaus - at least 4-6 people;

For design and technology departments - 15–20 people;

For design and technological bureaus - 7-10 people.

The position of deputy head of a subdivision is introduced, as a rule, when the controllability norm is exceeded by 1.5 times.

The need for personnel is influenced by the organizational structure of the company: linear, linear-headquarters, functional, program-targeted, matrix, divisional, which, in turn, depends on the fundamental approaches to the division and organization of labor. Factors that determine the structure of an organization can be objective, reflecting the specifics of production and the equipment and technology used, or subjective, reflecting the personal potential of the leader and his team.

Consider some examples of calculating the number of personnel.


Example 1 Planning the number of personnel of the organization based on the forecast of changes in labor intensity.

Initial data (results of the current year, determining the number of personnel):

The number of elevators in service - 10,252;

The total number of productive hours worked on the maintenance of elevators is 218,000 (useful time fund);

Number of employees: production (mechanics) - 145, non-production - 16.

Forecast for next year:

The time limit for servicing one elevator is increased by 15%;

Efficiency in the use of working time (the useful time fund of each mechanic) will increase by 10%;

The portfolio of orders will remain unchanged;

The ratio between production and non-production personnel will not change.

Calculation of standards for the current year:

Time spent on servicing one elevator \u003d 218,000 / 10,252 \u003d 21.3 hours;

Productive time fund of one mechanic = 218,000 / 145 = 1503 hours;

The ratio of the number of productive and unproductive workers = 145 / 16 = 9.1.

Taking into account the forecast, the need for personnel for the next year is calculated:

The time spent on servicing one elevator will be 21.3 / 1.15 = 18.5 hours;

The required number of productive hours will be 18.5 x 10,252 = 189,662 hours;

The productive time fund of one mechanic will be 1503 x 1.1 = 1653 hours;

The required number of mechanics will be 189 662 / 1653 = = 115 people;

The number of non-production personnel will be 115 / 9.1 = 13 people.


Example 2. Rationing of labor and calculation of the number of employees.

In relation to employees, rationing consists in establishing a measure of labor costs when performing a given amount of work for a certain period. At the same time, the measure of labor costs can be expressed either directly in the time spent by an employee of the required qualification to perform a unit of a particular job assigned to him, or indirectly - through the number of employees that is necessary to perform a certain function.

Managerial work as a kind of mental activity allows for the possibility of its quantitative and qualitative assessment based on the creation and use of a system of basic standards that reflect the measure of costs and results of this work at the level of primary elements.

Basic standards are calculated values ​​on the basis of which consolidated standards are developed, since the use of basic standards directly for standardizing specific work is often unnecessarily laborious.

Basic standards are created for typical elementary actions in three areas - the perception of information (listen, read, observe), its processing (actual mental work to find solutions) and use (speak, write, direct impact on a material object); into typical elementary complexes, each of which is a process consisting of at least three elementary actions (one from each direction).

When determining mental costs, it is necessary to investigate and develop the dependence of these costs on various norm-forming factors.

There are three types of complexity of the problem being solved - constructive (structural, large-scale), creative (intellectual) and operational complexity.

Each type of difficulty corresponds to a certain coefficient. For example, the coefficient of creative complexity (K TC) is set based on the following conditions: if additional information (preparation) is not required or you can limit yourself to a little analysis, then K ts = 1; if analysis is required, but the general approach, principle, solution procedure are established, K TC = 1.7; for complex jobs with little previous experience, K TC = 2.0; with complex problems and lack of previous experience K TC = 2.5; with complex problems, the solution of which is associated with the analysis and synthesis of many uncertain factors, K TC = 3.0.

Structural complexity is determined by the composition and number of interrelated parts in the problem being solved, the number of object parameters, the degree of their diversity, etc. Operational complexity is associated with the required accuracy of decisions made, the degree of their regulation, independence, responsibility, degree of risk, scale of the solution, urgency.

The coefficients are set by experts.

To calculate the optimal number of employees for many industry-wide functions, aggregated standards for the number of employees by management functions were developed. These standards could be translated into differentiated ones for individual units and positions, taking into account the specifics of the division of labor in a particular organization.

There are enlarged time standards for office work, standard time standards for the development of design documentation, technological documentation, standards for the number of engineers for rationalization and invention; uniform time standards for drawing and copying work, etc.

In table. 5.2 shows an example of calculating the planned number of employees of the organization's archive, made according to the aggregate time standards for work on office work.

The annual labor intensity of work T n is calculated according to the time standards, adjusted for the coefficient K\u003d 1.1, taking into account the time spent on organizational and technical maintenance of the workplace, rest (including physical culture breaks) and personal needs: T n \u003d 2136 x 1.1 \u003d 2349.6 people. / h

The labor intensity of work not provided for by the collection of enlarged standards (non-standardized work), T nn is determined by an expert and is 50.3 people. / h


Table 5.2

Initial data for calculating the number of employees of the archive of the organization




The useful fund of working time of one worker per year F p is taken on average equal to 1910 hours. Substituting the initial data into the formula, we obtain the required planned number:


An employee who has taken this workplace has the right to count on additional remuneration for increased labor intensity.

5.4. The concepts of rationing and labor organization, their meaning

Without norms for the cost of material factors and labor, it is impossible to plan activities, set clear goals, and determine results. Norms of various types are standards based on a scientific or everyday (everyday) approach, without which the activity would eventually lose its expediency. Sometimes, without knowing it, we correlate all our actions, measure them with some norms. The content and quantitative parameters of the norms, as F. Taylor proved, are radically influenced by the organization of labor. Let us give definitions to some basic concepts of organization and labor rationing.

Organization of production- the form, the procedure for combining labor with material elements of production in order to ensure the release of high-quality products, the achievement of high productivity of social labor, based on the best use of production assets and labor resources.

Scientific organization of labor (SOT)- the organization of labor, based on the achievements of science and best practices, systematically introduced into labor activity, which allows the best way to combine equipment and people in the labor process, ensuring the most efficient use of material and labor resources, continuous increase in labor productivity, contributing to the preservation of human health, the gradual transformation labor into a vital necessity.

NOT is designed to solve three main interrelated groups of tasks: economic - to ensure the most rational use of labor and material resources and thereby accelerate the growth rate of labor productivity and increase production efficiency; psychophysiological - to ensure the most favorable conditions in the labor process in order to preserve the health and sustainable performance of a person - the main productive force of society, ensure the content and attractiveness of labor, improve the culture and aesthetics of labor; social - to educate a positive attitude towards work, create conditions for the comprehensive development of the personality of workers, the transformation of labor into the first necessity of life.

Division of labor, differentiation is the specialization of labor activity, leading to the separation and coexistence of its various types. The social division of labor is the differentiation in society as a whole of various social functions performed by certain groups of people, and in connection with this, the allocation of various spheres of society (industry, agriculture, town and country, science, art, army, etc.), which, in turn, are divided into smaller branches. The technical division of labor is the division of labor into a number of partial functions, operations within an enterprise, organization. The social and technical division of labor finds expression in the professional division of labor. The specialization of production within a country and between countries is called the territorial and international division of labor. The type of division of labor is determined by the prevailing production relations. The initial division of labor (gender and age) is natural. In the future, the division of labor, in conjunction with the action of other factors (growth in property inequality, etc.), leads to the emergence of classes, the opposition between town and country, between mental and physical labor.

Manufacturing process The process of converting raw materials into finished products. Usually, a distinction is made between the main production processes, the purpose of which is the release of products for the market, and auxiliary (repair, transport, etc.) production processes that ensure the normal functioning of the enterprise. Each production process can be considered from two sides: as a set of changes that objects of labor undergo (technological process), and as a set of actions of workers aimed at expediently changing the objects of labor (labor process).

Technological processes are classified according to the following main features: the source of energy (passive and active), the degree of continuity (continuous and discrete) and the method of influencing the object of labor (mechanical - manual or machine, and hardware).

Labor processes are classified according to the following characteristics: the nature of the object and product of labor (material-energy, characteristic of workers, and information, characteristic of employees), by functions (for workers - main and auxiliary, for employees - the functions of managers, specialists and technical performers), by degree human participation in the impact on the subject of labor (the degree of labor mechanization) (manual, machine-manual, machine, automated), according to the severity of labor.

When organizing and planning production, rationing and remuneration, cost accounting, the production process is divided into operations.

Operation- a part of the production process performed on a specific object of labor by one worker or link (team) at one workplace.

Workplace- the zone of labor activity of one worker or link (team), part of the production space, the sphere of application of labor of one worker, link.

Labor rationing- a type of production management activity aimed at establishing the necessary costs and results of labor, as well as the necessary ratios between the number of employees of various groups and the number of pieces of equipment. Allocate norms of time, production, service, number, controllability, norms of expenditure of working time, labor force, material resources, energy etc. General provisions on labor rationing, the development, introduction, replacement and revision of norms, the provision by the employer of normal working conditions for the implementation of norms are given in Chapter 22 of the Labor Code of the Russian Federation.

To the main labor rationing methods refer analytical associated with the division of the labor process into elements, the study of these elements and the receipt of technically and scientifically sound standards, and total, using experience or statistics and allowing to obtain experimental-statistical norms. More information about labor rationing can be found in special works and methodological recommendations.

Methods for studying labor processes and working time:

Timing - used to analyze the methods of labor and determine the duration of the repeating elements of the operation; distinguish between continuous, selective and cyclic types of timing;

Photo of working time (FW) - used to establish the structure of the cost of working time (time spent on all types of work and breaks that were observed during a certain period of time); PDFs by types of observed objects are divided into individual PDFs, group (in particular, with a brigade form of labor organization), self-photography, PDFs of equipment, production process; PDF methods - direct measurements of time, the method of momentary observations;

Photochronometry - is used to simultaneously establish the structure of the cost of working time and the duration of individual operations.

Technical means studies of labor processes and working time - stopwatch, chronoscope, film and television cameras.

Workplaces classified by profession, number of performers, type of production, type of production, degree of specialization, level of mechanization, amount of equipment. The organization of workplaces includes a system of measures to equip the means of production, objects of labor and their placement in a certain order (equipment, planning, maintenance of the RM).

Organization of workplace services classified by functions (industrial and preparatory, instrumental, commissioning, control, transport and storage, energy, repair and construction, household, maintenance of the main and auxiliary equipment), by degree of centralization (centralized, decentralized, mixed), by form (standard, preventive, duty). The type of service depends on the type of production, the nature of specialization, the range of products and other factors. The principles underlying the choice of the form of service for workplaces: functionality, planning, complexity, precaution, efficiency, high quality and reliability, cost-effectiveness.

Division and cooperation of labor. Social labor presupposes a general, private and individual division of labor. At the enterprises there is a technological, functional and vocational division of labor. Joint work requires cooperation: intershop, intrashop, intrasectoral, intrabrigade.

The most complete manifestation of labor cooperation is found in the brigade form of labor organization. brigade- this is the primary link in the management system and at the same time - the primary cell of the labor collective. These features, the social and production essence of the brigade, determine the specifics of the organization of labor in the brigade. The production team independently carries out the production process and manages it in its work area, bears collective responsibility for the results of its work and the implementation of the tasks assigned to it. Integrated the team is organized from workers of various professions to perform a complex of technologically diverse, but interconnected work, covering the full cycle of production or its finished part. Specialized the brigade unites, as a rule, workers of the same profession, employed in homogeneous technological operations. Integrated and specialized teams can be shift, if all the workers included in them work in one shift, or through, if they include workers from all shifts. The team is usually present and must solve the whole range of problems associated with group processes, including the problems of formal leadership and leadership, compatibility, cooperation, identification, use and development of individual and group potential, etc.

5.5. Japanese methods of labor organization and management

Starting from the 20s. of the last century, in countries with a developed market, studies were carried out related to identifying the role of a person in production, and not just as one of the factors, not just as a carrier of "living labor", as the owner of a specific product "labor force", but as a unique personality, carrier many and varied properties, qualities, potential, manifested in different ways in different conditions, in individual work and in a team. It turned out and received a comprehensive, including economic justification, that the results of both individual and collective labor are determined to a decisive extent by the attitude of people to work. It determines labor behavior, contribution to the common cause, development and competitiveness of the enterprise. It turned out that it is the quality of the workforce that is a decisive factor in ensuring the viability of the company, that it is investments in improving the quality of the workforce that pay off most fully in comparison with investments in material factors.

How to make the company's employees share its goals and interests, associate their expectations and striving for success with it, and show innovative behavior? It seems that everyone in the modern world considers the experience of large Japanese companies, the so-called " japanese phenomenon". But if at the first stages of research on the "Japanese miracle" attention was focused on subjective factors - the Japanese national character, community consciousness, the spirit of collectivism, religion, then now the reasonable opinion prevails that the basis for the success of Japanese firms is the involvement and systematic use of personal and group properties of personnel firms, competent linking of aspirations, needs, expectations, natural for a person, with the interests of the firm. We are talking about a non-trivial organization of individual and collective labor at levels from inter-company interaction to the workplace based on a truly individual approach and providing employees with opportunities for active participation in the affairs of the company and their own development.

The fact that the point is in the system of organizational decisions related to socio-psychological factors is proved by the unprecedented success of joint American-Japanese enterprises with a predominance of American personnel and some Western companies that more or less systematically use the Japanese approach, called " compacted technology”(as opposed to “in-line, Taylorist technology”), or “lean production” as the antithesis of “mass production”, and which, according to many experts, is the basis for organizing production in the 21st century. Examples - joint venture Nummi, offspring General Motors and Toyota on American soil, as well as the successes of Japanese management achieved in a German automobile company Porsche.

The main elements of this organizational technology, hopefully, the near future of our country, requiring research, linking with the original and constantly changing conditions of Russian reality, are as follows:

implementation of the concept of "shojinka": systems for regulating production volumes by streamlining and redistributing the workforce. Flexible redistribution of workers on the production line allows you to change the flow cycle in accordance with the demand for the company's products (usually these changes are for the coming month), due to the rational placement of machines, the availability of a sufficient number of production personnel - well-trained multi-machine workers, constant evaluation and periodic revision of the sequence of technological operations, reflected in the map of labor processes, continuous training of workers at the workplace, in "quality circles", due to rotation;

predominantly horizontal communications, when the bulk of operational information that controls and regulates the production process moves towards material flows without passing through the highest level of management;

The system of operational support of production with material resources "just in time" ("kanban");

complete quality control system all objects of labor at each workplace (“ jidoka»);

a system of constant search for ways to improve quality, safety and efficiency of labor and products, unification of products, reducing the labor intensity of production ("kaizen"). Under lifetime employment, workers realize that their innovations and management efforts are not intended to make their job harder, but to avoid unnecessary movements to produce more products as the basis for the prosperity of the firm and workers;

brigade organization of labor, cooperation and mutual assistance;

Orientation of all labor collectives to achieve end results linked to the final results of the firm as a whole, targeted management;

overall production synchronization, minimizing the number of workers also for production as a whole;

A system of special relations with suppliers and banks based on cooperation and taking into account the interests of the parties.

It is no coincidence that the concept of “system” is widely used here (although it would be more correct to speak of “subsystems”): the fact is that these elements are really worked out deeply, comprehensively, provided with all types of resources, interconnected, brought to the level of technological operations, constantly improved and effectively are functioning. The development of the “densified technology” system and its elements was carried out mainly in the electronic and electrical industries, automotive and shipbuilding, so the use of the potential of this approach in other areas of activity, at enterprises of a different size, organizational and legal forms, in particular, remains a big and difficult problem. , in banking structures, and here there are ample opportunities for realizing the creative potential of specialists with an economic education, especially in combination with fundamental training in the field of human behavior and personnel management.

Since this system is associated with the promotion of the personality of the employee and the labor collective to the first place, increasing their role in achieving the goals of the organization, the quality of the workforce and its attitude to work at the enterprise play the most important role in the success of the common cause. The full use of such labor enrichment factors as decision-making, independence, responsibility, feedback, and others in the main production cell, in fact, delegating the function of operational management of production to the personnel of the main production link, implies the ability of this link to effectively perform the assigned functions. This, in turn, imposes increased requirements on the personnel management system, on the activities of which the quality of the company's personnel and its development, as well as the degree of job satisfaction and, consequently, the attitude to work and returns depend.

5.6. Enlarged algorithm for the transition to the organization of labor in groups, teams

Consider, based on the analytical method of problem solving popular in management (which, by the way, is the implementation of a systematic approach), the logic (large algorithm) of organizing the transition to group labor methods, the process of managing the creation and development of teams in an organization.

The scope of work does not depend much on whether we already have a group that has shown itself positively in the performance of previous tasks and deserves efforts to further develop it, turn it into a “dream team”, or whether we should attend to the formation of a group (team) before starting to issue a task to it or at the very beginning of the execution process.

In the first case, when we already have a fairly productive group, we make a bias towards choosing such work for the group that would contribute to its further development, the improvement of its best qualities; in the second case, we are talking about the formation of a group with the ability to do the job, and the development of the group "from scratch" in the process of completing the task.

So, if the organization has a task for which the group form of labor organization is recognized as the most effective (according to some important criteria), or due to a clearly perceived disadvantage, it is recognized as necessary to move to the organization of teams, but there is no group as such yet, the “group for work". In this case, a full-fledged project for the formation and development of a group in the process of completing a task is needed, including the following elements (the project can be represented as an algorithm for simultaneously solving a production and socio-psychological problem):

1. Analysis of the situation and strategic and tactical plans of the organization, the formation of conviction in the need and justification for the effectiveness of the transition to teamwork. Determination of the parameters and prospects of the team (teams), principles, methods and sources of its formation. Appointment of persons responsible for implementing changes, up to senior managers. Evaluation of resources of all kinds.

2. 1) the formation of team building competencies for the future team leader and for those responsible for the reorganization. If it is necessary to restructure and reorganize the activities of the entire company on the principles of teamwork, the entire management of the company should master the maximum possible set of team building competencies for each and decide which, how much and from where external specialists will have to be involved. A manager who has mastered the basic competencies will be able to independently organize or, at least, actively participate in the formation of a group, including at the stage of selecting candidates for a future team;

2) teaching future team members the basics of teamwork, acquiring a number of necessary team building and teamwork competencies (the composition and content of competencies is determined at the discretion of managers and specialists of the organization who are already quite competent in this area).

3. Description of the problem, tasks for the future team, assessment of the degree of its attractiveness for members of the future group (for example, according to the theory of R. Hackman and G. Oldham, the task should contain: significance, completeness, independence, diversity, feedback, developing potential) .

4. Formulating an attractive image (vision) of the team's future, setting goals and defining criteria for achieving them.

5. Putting forward hypotheses, alternatives, establishing criteria for choosing among the most preferred alternatives (fast, cheap, promising, attractive to customers, etc.).

6. Selection on the basis of an express assessment of the considered alternatives of the most preferred option for completing the task according to the established criteria.

7. Elaboration of the selected preferred hypothesis to the state of the program, plan for its implementation, achievement of goals and calculation of the necessary resources of all kinds, including material, financial, labor. More:

1) calculation of all necessary types of resources and costs to achieve goals;

2) determination of sources, time and probability of timely receipt of resources, including material, financial, temporary, labor (group personnel);

3) linking resources and individual stages of work, if necessary - up to the development of network plans;

4) planning activities, stages of achieving goals, intermediate and final indicators;

5) determination of the requirements for the group from the side of the task, the necessary properties and qualities, abilities and skills, the level of the labor potential of the group, as well as methods and indicators for their measurement. It is necessary to organize and evaluate the qualities of candidates for members of the group, make a forecast of the degree of usefulness for the group, functional and official and social status and role in the group; determine the labor potential of the group, usefulness in terms of competencies and roles;

6) a comprehensive review of the structure and composition of the group and testing the ability of the group to group work. It is useful to offer the group to perform a trial (test) task aimed at identifying the possibility of joint work and potential for development (consideration of a business situation, conducting a business game, brainstorming, group training of cohesion, mutual understanding, trust, communication), as well as aimed at identifying the level of professional - qualification potential. Based on the results of the approbation, it is necessary to analyze the results and make changes to the composition and / or structure of the group, and possibly to the task itself;

7) determination of working conditions, organization and regulation of the work of the group;

8) development of a system of remuneration and incentives for the work of the group as a whole and members of the group, the distribution of collective bonuses among members of the group;

9) determination of the form of control over the activities of the group and labor behavior.

8. Implementation of the alternative, i.e., the implementation of the plan, the program: ensuring the flow of resources, organizing and implementing the activities of employees, monitoring, regulating, coordinating, stimulating, monitoring progress in the activities and development of group processes.

9. Obtaining intermediate production and / or socio-psychological results and their analysis, substantiating the need to either continue the implementation of the plan, or make adjustments, or stop work, or return to any previous stage of the algorithm. Implementation of measures consistent with the decision taken on the basis of the results of the intermediate control and analysis.

10. Obtaining the final result and its analysis, substantiating the conclusion: either the goal is achieved and the problem is solved, or it is necessary to continue work, expand the scope of work, or stop working, or return to any previous stage.

11. Making an informed decision regarding the future fate of the group: dissolution, transformation, assignment of other work.

The sequence of stages, works, procedures included in the algorithm should not be considered as rigid. Many procedures are implemented in an iterative mode: work on the next stage may lead to the need to clarify, redo some aspects of the previous stages. In addition, a specific competent manager may come to the need to make changes to this algorithm.

The criteria for deciding on the future fate of the group may be as follows:

Favorable / unfavorable from the point of view of the organization, trends in the development, behavior and productivity of the group;

Presence / absence of work that can interest the group and ensure its development;

Favorable / unfavorable prospects for the development of the organization itself and group work in it.

In the case of a situation favorable for the organization and development of the group, the “work for the group” approach is implemented:

An analysis of the new situation and the new state of the group is carried out;

The tasks that could be assigned to the group are determined;

Criteria for selecting a task for the group are determined, for example, such as a higher level of complexity compared to the previous task, the level and reasons for the interest of group members in it, the significance of the task for the organization, the presence of developing potential in the task;

From a set of possible tasks, a task is selected that can captivate the group “to new achievements”;

5.7. Working conditions and safety

Article 209 of the Labor Code of the Russian Federation defines the basic concepts of labor protection in this way.

Occupational Safety and Health– a system for preserving the life and health of employees in the course of their work, including legal, socio-economic, organizational and technical, sanitary and hygienic, medical and preventive, rehabilitation and other measures.

Working conditions- a set of factors of the working environment and the labor process that affect the performance and health of the employee.

Harmful production factor- a production factor, the impact of which on an employee can lead to his illness.

Hazardous production factor- a production factor, the impact of which on an employee can lead to his injury.

Safe working conditions- working conditions under which the impact on workers of harmful and / or hazardous production factors is excluded or the levels of their impact do not exceed the established standards.

The formation and change of working conditions is influenced by many factors, combined into three groups:

1. Socio-economic:

1) normative and legislative regulation of socio-economic and production working conditions (duration of working hours and modes of work and rest, sanitary norms and requirements, a system for monitoring compliance with applicable laws, requirements and rules in the field of working conditions);

2) socio-psychological factors that characterize the employee's attitude to work and working conditions, the psychological climate in production teams, the effectiveness of applied benefits and compensation for work, which are inevitably associated with adverse effects.

2. Organizational and technical:

1) means of labor (industrial buildings and structures, sanitary and domestic devices, technological equipment, tools, devices, including means that ensure the technical safety of labor);

2) objects of labor and the product of labor (raw materials, materials, blanks, semi-finished products, finished products);

3) technological processes (physical, mechanical, chemical and biological effects on the processed objects of labor, methods of their transportation and storage, etc.);

4) organizational forms of production, labor and management (level of specialization of production; its scale and mass character; shift work of the enterprise; discontinuity and continuity of production; forms of division and cooperation of labor; its techniques and methods; applied modes of work and rest during the work shift, week years; organization of workplace maintenance; the structure of the enterprise and its divisions; the ratio of functional and linear production management, etc.).

3. natural factors, which are of particular importance in the formation of working conditions in agricultural production, mining, transport, construction, etc.

According to the Decree of the Ministry of Labor and Social Development of the Russian Federation of March 14, 1997 No. 12, all workplaces available in the organization are subject to certification in terms of working conditions.

The results of certification of workplaces in terms of working conditions, carried out in accordance with this regulation, are used for the purposes of:

Planning and carrying out measures to protect and improve working conditions in accordance with the current regulatory legal documents;

Certification of production facilities for compliance with labor protection requirements;

Justifications for the provision of benefits and compensations to employees engaged in hard work and work with harmful and dangerous working conditions, in the manner prescribed by law;

Deciding whether the disease is related to the profession (if an occupational disease is suspected), establishing a diagnosis of an occupational disease, including when resolving disputes and disagreements in court;

Consideration of the issue of termination (suspension) of the operation of the workshop, site, production equipment, changes in technologies that pose a direct threat to the life and (or) health of workers;

Inclusion in the employment contract (contract) of the working conditions of employees;

Familiarization of employees with working conditions in the workplace;

Compilation of statistical reporting on the state of working conditions, benefits and compensation for work with harmful and dangerous working conditions in the form No. 1-T (working conditions);

Application of administrative and economic sanctions (measures) against guilty officials in connection with violation of labor protection legislation.

The timing of certification is established by the organization, based on changes in the conditions and nature of work, but at least once every 5 years from the date of the last measurements.

Workplaces are subject to mandatory recertification after the replacement of production equipment, changes in the technological process, reconstruction of collective protective equipment, etc., as well as at the request of the State Expertise of Working Conditions of the Russian Federation, which revealed violations during the certification of workplaces in terms of working conditions. The results of the recertification are drawn up in the form of an appendix for the relevant positions to the certification card of the workplace for working conditions.

Measurements of the parameters of dangerous and harmful production factors, determination of indicators of the severity and intensity of the labor process are carried out by the laboratory divisions of the organization. If the organization does not have the technical means and reference base necessary for this, centers of state sanitary and epidemiological surveillance, laboratories of the bodies of the State Expertise of Working Conditions of the Russian Federation and other laboratories accredited (certified) for the right to conduct these measurements are involved.

Assessment of injury safety of workplaces is carried out by organizations independently or, at their request, by third-party organizations that have permission from the bodies of the State Expertise of Working Conditions of the Russian Federation for the right to carry out these works.

Working conditions include mode of work and rest, and although some employees would prefer to work on an individual basis, the enterprise cannot always meet them halfway due to the requirements of the technological process, content and nature of work. Usually, the regime of work and rest is reflected in the work schedule of the organization or in the collective agreement, and when hiring, the employee decides whether such a regime suits him or not. The mode of work and rest is developed taking into account the maximum possible preservation of the working capacity of people and the reduction of fatigue.

In the Civil Code there is chapter 59 "Obligations due to harm", according to which the employer bears liability for damage, incurred by an employee of his enterprise (this may be an injury or other harm caused to the life or health of citizens in the performance of their contractual obligations).

Compensation is subject to income lost by the victim due to the injury, as well as all expenses incurred by him during treatment, for the purchase of medicines, for prosthetics, sanatorium treatment, the purchase of special vehicles, preparation for another profession, etc., while in the pension and earnings of the victim are not taken into account.

In the event of the liquidation of the enterprise, the successor assumes the compensation for the damage, or an amount is withdrawn from the account of the enterprise and capitalized, the interest on which is sufficient to compensate for the damage caused to the employee. The "Rules for compensation by the employer of harm caused to employees by injury, occupational disease or other damage to health associated with the performance of their labor duties" were developed and adopted, as amended. Federal Law No. 180-FZ dated November 24, 1995. The conclusion that the entrepreneur must make is that the costs of labor protection are economically feasible and pay off.

Planning for personnel requirements is a direction of personnel planning that allows, within a given period of time, to ensure the effective implementation of the main activities of the organization by providing labor resources of the necessary quantitative and qualitative composition.

Depending on the nature of the need for personnel, the following types of planning are distinguished:

Planning for the quantitative need for personnel. In the process of such planning, the volume of labor force necessary to achieve the set goals in a specific planning period is determined. The required quantitative volume of the workforce is determined based on the set business goals and the staffing structure of the organization;

Planning for the qualitative need for personnel. The purpose of such planning is to determine the necessary professional and qualification potential of the workforce, which would allow achieving the set goals on schedule;

Planning of temporary demand for labor resources. This type of planning is carried out taking into account changes in the need for personnel over time, the cause of which may be changes in economic, technical and organizational conditions.

The staffing planning process can be divided into the following steps:

Generalized analysis of various types of organization plans that have an impact on staffing (investment plans, production plan, product sales plan, etc.);

Analysis of personnel statistics, including information on its business evaluation and promotion;

Determination of the actual state by the quantitative and qualitative state of the personnel for the planned period;

Calculation and determination of the quantitative and qualitative needs for personnel for the period considered in the plan;

Comparison of data obtained at previous planning stages;

Planning activities to meet the need for staff.

The main methods for determining the quantitative need for personnel:

A method based on the use of data on the time of the labor process. Its essence lies in determining the number of workers working piecework or time-based, based on the labor intensity of the labor process and the useful time fund of one employee;

Calculation method according to service rates (unit-method). Allows you to calculate the number of employees based on data on the number of machines, units and other objects serviced by these employees;

Calculation method for jobs and headcount standards. Allows you to determine the required number of employees based on the established number of jobs and headcount standards (i.e., the ratio of the volume of work and the rate of service);

Statistical methods, among which are:

stochastic methods - based on an analysis of the relationship between the need for staff and other variables (production volume, technical equipment, etc.). Most often, from this group of methods, the calculation of numerical characteristics, regression analysis, and correlation analysis are used;

methods of expert assessments, which consist in conducting an analysis, assessment using the conclusions of specialists, managers. If the need for staff is assessed by the head of the relevant service, then a simple expert assessment takes place. If the assessment is carried out by a group of competent employees (experts), we are talking about an extended expert assessment.

Forecasting the need for personnel is the determination of the degree of provision of the organization with personnel in the future based on the analysis of forecasts of demand and supply of labor resources. The algorithm for determining the need for personnel, see fig. 25.

The main task of forecasting the need for personnel is to establish the influence of market development trends on changes in the need for personnel.

The solution of this problem allows the management of personnel services and the entire organization to anticipate an excess or shortage of labor resources and make and implement decisions in advance that neutralize negative market changes, as well as adapt the necessary decisions to possible events in the future (decisions on the selection and training of personnel focused on product change or company services).

The following methods can be used to predict the need for personnel:

building a predictive tree of the organization's goals;

extrapolation, which provides for the establishment of stable proportions between various indicators that affect the change in the need for personnel, and the transfer of established dependencies to the future;

method of expert assessments;

factor analysis.

The subjects of forecasting the need for personnel are:

organization leadership;

management and personnel services specialists;

services (departments) directly solving the issues of forecasting the development of the organization:

planning;

Marketing;

Development of control systems.

When planning and forecasting the needs for personnel, the norms of labor, time, production, maintenance, as well as the norms of the number are used.

Personnel forecasting and planning become the main element of personnel policy and are an integral part of the overall planning of the enterprise.

Forecasting and planning personnel are closely related to the development of plans: the production program, logistics, personnel costs, increasing labor productivity, financial security.

The given parameters of all the listed plans, as well as the structure of the enterprise, allow us to determine the required number of personnel.

Personnel forecasting and planning are considered in two aspects (taking into account the interests of personnel and the enterprise) and are based on the data of the enterprise's strategic plans. In fact, this means that the goals of personnel forecasting and planning become derived from the goals of the enterprise and are carried out in close contact with the services: planning, marketing, development of management systems, etc.

Workforce planning tasks include:-

defining the goal, strategy, forecasting and personnel management and establishing their relationship with the overall goal and strategy of the enterprise; -

assessment of the level of dismissal and the forecast of turnover; -

forecasting the demand of personnel in the labor market; -

identification of sources of personnel replenishment and assessment of replenishment of internal resources; -

assessment of the state of labor potential; -

identification of structural units with an excess or shortage of personnel in general, as well as individual specialists and employees; -

establishing the reasons for the discrepancy between the required and registered personnel; -

development of personnel development programs; -

assessment of the labor functions of personnel in terms of quantitative and qualitative parameters and the study of labor potential.

The personnel planning process finds its logical conclusion in the enterprise plan.

A plan is a formal document that reflects: -

forecast of personnel development in the future; -

intermediate and final tasks; -

availability of resources and calculation of personnel costs.

The forecast of the need for personnel is carried out by several methods (individually and in combination).

The staffing forecast is based on an analysis of supply and demand to determine savings or excess staffing.

In the theory of forecasting, various methods have been developed that are used to predict the need for personnel.

In practice, there are two points of view on the choice of a method for forecasting the need for personnel. Supporters of the first direction consider it expedient to use the simplest, cheapest methods, while others, on the contrary, suggest using expensive forecast models. In fact, in practice, enterprises use various methods for forecasting the number of personnel: from the simplest to complex multifactorial models; their choice depends on the goals, objectives, availability of an information database and the capabilities of the enterprise.

Methods for forecasting the need for personnel are based on the use of mathematical and static methods and modeling methods.

The simplest method is the extrapolation method, the essence of which is to transfer the current (actual) structure, composition of the population to the future period in the proportions and quantity of the past period. This method is used for short-term forecasting in enterprises with a constant and stable organizational structure.

The attractiveness of this method lies in the availability, ease of calculation, economy, low cost.

The main disadvantage of this method is that it does not take into account possible changes in the development of production, various factors of labor productivity and the external environment.

The adjusted extrapolation method differs from the previous one in that when calculating the projected headcount, changes in all assumed factors are taken into account. For example, factors that increase labor productivity, increase production, increase prices and tariffs, inflation, etc.

Methods of expert assessments are based on the use of the opinions of specialists and managers who give simple and extended (complex) assessments, including both single and multiple expert assessments. With a simple assessment, the need for personnel is assessed by the relevant services.

The main advantage of this method is a more accurate calculation of the projected headcount. The main disadvantage is the complexity and difficulty of collecting and processing information and the subjectivity of the judgment of line managers. A detailed peer review is carried out by a group of competent employees (experts).

According to the Delphi method, each of the experts gives an independent assessment. The mediators present each expert's forecast and proposals to the others and allow the experts to revise their positions if the need arises. This process continues until there is complete agreement among the experts. Thus, the methods of expert assessments are simpler and do not require research work and complex calculations.

Given the rapid development of technical means, a number of enterprises use computer models to predict the need for personnel. The essence of this method is to compile mathematical models using the above methods.

Computer models provide the most accurate predictions and results, but high costs make it possible to implement them only in large enterprises.

When employing headcount forecasting techniques, managers obtain an estimate of future staffing needs. These estimates can be made both at the top management level and passed down, or at a lower management level and sent up for further adjustment.

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